Editorial: Hopes for the Voice have gone quiet in Australia

Australians are voting on the Voice to parliament referendum for the recognition of first peoples in Australia's constitution. Photo / Alka Prasad

For a rare and important event, the Voice referendum in Australia today appears to be sliding towards an anticlimactic end.

Polls strongly suggest Australians will give a thumbs down to the proposal to set up a system whereby indigenous people can have their say to parliament on issues relevant to them.

It aims to be a step towards easing the steep disadvantage experienced by the first peoples in Australia by getting their input on measures to improve their lives.

However, the “no” vote is considered likely to be about 60 per cent, based on polling trends.

From an initial wave of enthusiasm for the idea in 2022, the “yes” vote has been falling since.

Polling by Focaldata shows the only groups offering majority support to “yes” are people aged 18 to 34 and those with left-leaning views.

In comparison, those in the young family demographic - 35 to 44 - and two-thirds of centrists are majority “no”. People in rural areas are most strongly opposed.

YouGov found that “no” voters tend to be Coalition supporters aged over 50, who live outside inner-city urban areas.

Rather than being an issue to stir unity, the referendum has proved to be divisive, with “no” campaigners proving successful in stirring fears over something new and different that helps a minority group in the population.

It has attracted animosity from people already opposed to what they consider to be the opinions of urban elites.

Many Australians baulked at the idea of changing the constitution to include an advisory body specifically for indigenous people.

The referendum, with its aspirational goals, also landed during the everyday grind of the cost-of-living crisis with people focused on their personal economic concerns.

From this side of the ditch, the referendum’s plan for a simple method of representation seems a reasonable and basic approach to help Aboriginal people, who make up 3.5 per cent of the population.

To Australians, it possibly seems a much bigger leap than it is.

Politicians would only be required to listen to a group of indigenous representatives, there would be no obligation to act. The Voice would have no power to veto anything.

There are various advisory groups made up of experts who give opinions to governments on different topics as it is.

The referendum always faced a high bar to hurdle. In Australia’s history, only eight of 44 have previously been approved.

To pass, “yes” needs majority support across Australia and in four of six states. It’s the first Australian referendum since 1999 and the last referendum to win was in 1977.

The wording is: “A Proposed Law: to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has tried to rally Australians for “yes” by calling it a historic opportunity and a “once-in-a-generation chance”.

More likely it will be a missed opportunity to take a practical and hopeful step. Most voters appear likely to wrap themselves in the comfort blanket of the status quo.