A nurse prepares a syringe of a Covid-19 vaccine. Photo / AP file
A nurse prepares a syringe of a Covid-19 vaccine. Photo / AP file
EDITORIAL
The news that health officials are working on a “change of direction” over Covid-19 monitoring could turn out to be a smart move - as long as some surveillance regime results.
Experts have wanted a regular prevalence survey method for a long time, to keep track of levels ofCovid-19 infection and people’s immunity in the community.
But a lot has changed since and any plan needs to pitch forward, rather than look behind.
Whatever is set up needs to be an early warning beacon for any new viruses of different types that may cross our shores.
The Ministry of Health had hoped to launch regular survey testing of a representative sample of the population after the first Omicron wave last year.
Now the Herald reports that a ministry update is likely next month on a “changed way forward” that takes into account “the shift in Aotearoa’s Covid-19 environment”.
That may hint at a shift in focus on the purpose of such data collection.
Covid is still hanging around and is still a danger to some people. Long-covid could result and reinfections are best avoided. Having a bivalent booster available for people aged over 30 from April is useful for people whose immunity could be waning.
Ayesha Verrall, Health Minister giving an update on the rollout of the new Pfizer Covid-19 bivalent vaccine at Cannons Creek Medical Centre. Photo / Jed Bradley
However, the coronavirus is now in an endemic phase as far as most people are concerned, an unpleasant inconvenience if it strikes in its heavy head cold-like form.
As modeller Professor Michael Plank says: “We are no longer in the emergency phase of the pandemic where we need to react strongly to very rapidly changing situations.”
Relying on voluntary reporting of infections has been inadequate for months with people in the mindset of brushing off and getting through. Wastewater surveillance is a good backup as it takes away the need for the infected to provide information. Data from hospitalisations and deaths add to the Covid impact picture.
Plank says more extensive data would be beneficial as an emerging variant “will be very difficult to detect without knowing the true number of infections”.
There’s also the potential for new viruses to emerge or for old ones to mutate into something worse. In February, a bird flu outbreak in a Cambodian family caused concern until it was found to differ from the strain that has killed tens of thousands of wild birds and some other animals in recent months.
Health workers spray villagers after the father of an 11-year-old girl in Cambodia who died after contracting bird flu tested positive for the virus. Photo / Cambodia Ministry of Health via AP
Isolated cases of bird flu appear occasionally in humans, and there are existing vaccines. But the possibility that the H5N1 avian influenza virus could evolve to become easily capable of broadly spreading between people is one health authorities are aware of.
WHO director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness Dr Sylvie Briand said at the time: “We are more prepared [than for Covid-19], but ... we are not yet prepared enough. We need to really continue the efforts for a flu pandemic.”
Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker says any surveillance system should cover a range of viruses, including Covid-19, influenza, and RSV, and sustainable sites were better than short-term surveys.
“Such surveillance is vital public health infrastructure and also needs to be there for future pandemics, which are most likely to be respiratory viruses.”
