Editorial: Hipkins gets break in China as National focuses on bread and butter

National deputy leader Nicola Willis during her speech at the party's annual conference at the Michael Fowler Centre in Wellington. Photo / Mark Mitchell

EDITORIAL:

Despite a packed schedule and the pressure to make the most of a high-level trip to China, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is probably still glad for some time away.

The pressure at home on the major party leaders has been intense and is only building with the election less than four months away.

Hipkins has had a string of other people’s damaging mistakes to deal with, losing three ministers and having to pile their work on to others.

Hipkins’ firefighting has been necessary, but the Government’s own goals keep distracting and detracting from its agenda and performance.

For Opposition leader Christopher Luxon, it is more about avoiding stuff-ups himself as he wrangles trying to appeal to two different audiences: the less politically tribal voting majority and the conservative grassroots in a tussle with frenemy coalition partner Act.

This can result in some contradictory policy positions, swings in tones, and statements having to be clarified later.

There also continue to be some odd moments.

At the weekend, Luxon, 53, appeared in a Crusaders jersey in a National Party ad saying he had loved the champion Super Rugby Pacific team since he was “a little boy”. Super Rugby began in 1996.

Crusaders support does not stop during National Conference 💪 #NatConf2023 pic.twitter.com/k9o2Zme0Z6

— NZ National Party (@NZNationalParty) June 24, 2023

While it’s not a good idea to focus too much on individual polls over polling averages, a Talbot Mills poll last week showed Hipkins back up to 38 per cent as preferred Prime Minister, despite Labour’s problems. That could be because approaching issues in a methodical manner fits with people’s perceptions of Hipkins.

With the opinion polls essentially in a dead heat between coalition options for months, it’s hard to predict what might break the deadlock.

How many people are really persuadable and still to make up their minds? A Roy Morgan poll conducted in April had 3.5 per cent of respondents who did not name a party when asked who they would vote for.

A trip to China gives Hipkins a chance to operate as the country’s leader overseas and with the opportunity of good trade news.

There was an early pre-flight test, with Hipkins being asked whether China’s leader Xi Jinping is a dictator or not after US President Joe Biden called him one during a meeting with California donors. Even so, the fact US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just been to Beijing has cleared the diplomatic air for now.

But Luxon and National will have a chance to grab more of the domestic spotlight, and that began at the weekend with the party’s conference.

Deputy leader Nicola Willis made a pitch to a centre section of the electorate key to both parties: mortgage holders. Inflation, the cost of living and housing are the top three issues, according to an Ipsos survey this month.

“In the months ahead, hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders will have to move off a home loan with a 2 or 3 per cent interest rate to a loan with 6 or 7 per cent interest.”

The party’s prize offering - tax cuts - was mentioned, and National’s policy of no change on tax reform was presented as not weakening “our fragile economy”.

It’s good bread-and-butter material and plays to the economic area voters tend to see as the party’s strength.

Again the tension is there between feeling the pain of the middle and dangling some relief, but not being willing to consider changes to the status quo in how the wealthy could contribute more.