Editorial: Ukraine war nearing a crucial point as its military fallout widens

A Ukrainian army Grad multiple rocket launcher fires rockets at Russian positions in the frontline near Soledar. Photo / AP

As the war in Ukraine gets closer to its first anniversary next month, there are signs the conflict is also nearing a reckoning.

The northern winter was expected to be a period of stalemate on the battlefield. Current fighting is focused on Soledar, a salt-mining town in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. Yesterday, missile attacks blasted cities, killing at least nine people in an apartment building in Dnipro and injuring dozens.

As spring approaches, the likelihood of offensives on both sides is rising.

Western governments supporting Ukraine have announced they are sending combat vehicles to help Kyiv.

Yesterday Britain said it would provide 14 Challenger 2 tanks in the coming weeks. A government statement said: “UK defence and security officials believe a window has opened up where Russia is on the backfoot due to resupply issues and plummeting morale. The Prime Minister is therefore encouraging allies to deploy their planned support for 2023 as soon as possible.”

Poland also intends to send tanks. The first fighting vehicles from the United States, Germany and France are expected in a few months.

It’s a move that could be decisive in enabling Ukraine to reclaim occupied land. It also suggests the allies calculate that pushing for an advantage trumps any fear of escalation from Moscow.

An analyst at intelligence firm Janes said such fighting vehicles could give Kyiv “a big tactical advantage, particularly if the Ukrainians look to launch an offensive to recapture territory”.

Ukrainian officials reportedly also expect Russia to launch a new offensive in the spring.

This is occurring amid public tensions between rival defence factions in Russia competing for influence over the war’s direction.

The Kremlin has reshuffled its military brass as Russian mercenaries in Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group battle Ukrainian troops around Bakhmut.

General Valery Gerasimov is in overall charge. General Sergei Surovikin, who ran the strategy of hammering Ukraine’s energy grid over recent months, is deputy. Analysts have suggested these changes may be a response to Prigozhin, who has criticised the military command but praised Surovikin.

The war in Ukraine is having an influence on strategic military moves in our own region.

Australia has now secured a deal to buy 20 Himars truck-mounted rocket systems by 2026. Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy said the use of Himars in Ukraine prompted the move.

“We’ll have an Army ground launched missile that can reach targets up to 300km away and we’re part of developmental programme in the United States ... that’ll allow Army to hit targets in excess of 499km. This will give the Australian Army a strike capability they’ve never had before.”

Japan is another regional neighbour involved in a military build-up - sinking US$320 billion over five years into missile systems able to strike China.

In a national security paper in December, Japan’s Government said: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a serious violation of laws that forbid the use of force and has shaken the foundations of the international order. The strategic challenge posed by China is the biggest Japan has ever faced.”

At the weekend Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met US President Joe Biden at the White House to discuss strategic cooperation.

There have been reports, though, that Beijing wants to be less isolated and is seeking a diplomatic reset with at least some Western countries, a process made more difficult by China’s Covid-19 outbreak and reopening.

China is important for improvement on the economic outlook, and progress on other global issues.

Countries directly linking Russia’s situation over Ukraine with China’s role in the region could be missing the chance to help Beijing move away from Moscow’s orbit.