Editorial: Searching for an endgame, a year on from Russia’s invasion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, right, and US President Joe Biden shake hands during their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL

After a year of fighting that followed clear patterns, the war in Ukraine is at an uncertain point with questions over how long it will stretch for, will great power politics extend it, and whether there is a viable endgame.

In the 12 months since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Kyiv has resisted the aggressor with great resolve and at great cost, while the conflict has sapped Moscow politically, economically, and militarily in its region.

Both United States and European leaders understood the need to hold the line against Russia with Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s catastrophic miscalculation of thinking he could quickly take Kyiv. Russia installing a puppet regime by force in a vast country next to the European Union would have been a disaster for the security of neighbouring nations.

European countries have since managed to get through the cold months without reliance on Russian energy, and major Western countries have backed Ukraine with military supplies. Regardless of how the war ends, Russia is isolated in Europe and opposition to it on the continent is strengthening the EU and Nato.

The war has killed or wounded an estimated 300,000 combatants and reduced military capacity on both sides. Russia has increased the area of Ukrainian territory it held before the invasion from 7 per cent to 17 per cent now.

Ukraine is still getting more equipment and high-tech systems. Russia has called up more troops but they are less well-trained than those they replace. The fighting is brutal. A former US marine with the Ukrainian Army at Bakhmut said: “The life expectancy is around four hours on the frontline.”

Soldiers of the Ukrainian 3rd Army Assault Brigade of the Special Operations Forces (SSO) "Azov" rest in a blindage after a night fight near Bakhmut. Photo / Libkos, AP

Ukraine has taken a terrible toll with tens of thousands of people dead, millions of its people refugees, and its infrastructure and buildings regularly battered as Russia targets the entire country, knowing Western countries will end up with the bill.

Ukraine has kept the war at a stalemate for months, with Russia still occupying a thick buffer zone in the east and south.

Despite expectations of new offensives on both sides from next month, these current static conditions could potentially become the basis for negotiations to end the conflict - or they could suggest that the end is a long way off.

Ukraine wants to retake more Ukrainian territory and Russia hasn’t been willing to search for an exit, calling up young Russians, making use of the mercenary Wagner Group, and using Iranian drones.

Beyond what the direct combatants want are other agendas.

The US claims that China may supply weapons to its ally Russia after previously trying to sit out direct involvement.

Both the US and China, a year on from Russia’s invasion and in their own tense competitive relationship, will be factoring in a weakened Russia with no way out of its own trap in their strategies going forward.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives at the 'Glory to the Defenders of the Fatherland' concert in Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow, Russia. Photo / Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool via AP

This week, US President Joe Biden symbolically underlined support for Ukraine by visiting Kyiv and then Warsaw, as China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi went to Moscow.

“You’re the frontlines of our collective defence,” Biden told representatives of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. While Ukraine is dependent on the West for military aid, and it is putting pressure on weapons production, a lot of countries are involved in that alliance.

The Kremlin is able to direct mass production of armaments within Russia and there are also a number of countries in the Middle East, Asia and elsewhere wanting to stay on good terms with Russia.

Neither side is close to achieving its goals and for Putin staying in the fight probably has become equivalent to staying alive politically and perhaps literally.

Both sides would not want talks before achieving a fresh advantage. For Ukraine, pushing Russia out entirely would likely require fighter jets and long-range missiles capable of firing into Russia and would turn its defensive posture into an aggressive one.

A ceasefire based on the current battlefield situation would ease the suffering but not resolve the background tensions.

Russia’s leadership would be even more defensive in mindset with Ukraine not just in the West camp but a key strategic geographical part of it, like Poland. And yet a slightly smaller Ukraine, fully integrated into the EU and Nato, would give it a much higher deterrence factor against future Russian aggression.

The most realistic endgame will be one where neither side gets all they want.