The waters may be murky but there are interesting details in what appears to be leaked defence intelligence briefings.
US intelligence gathering both takes advantage of and is vulnerable to technology and modern ways of communication. It’s a very broad operation. Agencies receive US$90 billion each year and use agents, satellites, and tap electronic communications.
The casual, loose nature of this leak is striking. The Washington Post reported it involves hundreds of transcripts and photos of classified documents that appeared first on Discord, a chat app popular with gamers, in a private server forum. They spread more widely online and were then picked up by international media.
What’s damaging politically for the Biden Administration is the leak undermines both its efforts to restore credibility with allies after the Trump years and its key international achievement - ensuring Ukraine can defend itself against Russia.
The documents show friendly nations have been spied upon, but more importantly, the public revelations mean they may now be more wary about sharing information.
The leaked assessments are also recent, which is problematic considering they are downbeat about Kyiv’s chances of achieving its upcoming counter-offensive goals, predicting Ukraine will fall “well-short” and there would be “modest territorial gains”. They say that Ukraine may be about to run out of air defence missiles and any talks to end the war are unlikely this year.
On the other hand, the New York Times reported on documents that give more detail on clashes in the Kremlin and overall the papers suggest US intelligence is deeply monitoring the Russian military.
The documents say Western special forces are in Ukraine, which has always seemed likely. But Nato countries have been keen to maintain they are not directly fighting Russia. Britain - where New Zealand has been helping to train Ukrainian soldiers - has the largest contingent of 50 special forces. Britain’s Ministry of Defence tweeted: “Readers should be cautious about taking at face value allegations that have the potential to spread misinformation.”
There have been claims in the documents that go against public positions, such as an assertion that Serbia has provided or agreed to supply weapons to Ukraine. Serbia, which has long-standing ties with Russia, is officially neutral in the war and has denied the claim.
The leaks show how closely the US keeps tabs on allies and friendly nations. For instance, a document assesses the positions of 38 European countries over Kyiv’s requests for military assistance.
American intelligence looked into Russian claims that it was building a closer relationship with the United Arab Emirates. Egypt allegedly planned to ship thousands of rockets to Russia. Both countries have also denied this.
South Korean leaders were said to be privately uncertain about sending artillery shells to Ukraine - which suggests being spied on. An official in Seoul claimed a “considerable number” of the documents were fabricated. But other documents also suggest surveillance, referring to communications involving United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
While different countries clearly spy on each other, the US looks hypocritical after only recently getting in a lather over high-flying Chinese balloons.
US support for European nations under President Joe Biden and alliance-building elsewhere is meant to solidify backing for the US in return, over rivals China and Russia. But some countries would clearly prefer a more independent line, as comments from French President Emmanuel Macron showed, and the question of US reliability under a different watch is resurfacing with Donald Trump’s comeback.
From the public point of view, the leak is useful as a peek behind the wall of diplomatic-speak.
It could be a useful reality check against too much optimism over the Ukraine conflict’s conclusion, which is most likely to happen only when one side exhausts its resources for waging war.
Ukraine and the US are using the novel argument that minimal damage has been done because Kyiv withheld its counter-offensive operational plans from Washington - as it wasn’t sure the US could keep those secrets safe.
“They have a great plan ... but only President Zelenskyy and his leadership really know the full details of that plan,” US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said.
The US will be hoping to have a better handle on its own secrets in future.
