Editorial: Will Donald Trump’s guilty verdict impact the election? Probably not

The jury in former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial resumed deliberations Thursday May 30, 2024. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL

On Friday morning, New Zealand time, former US president Donald Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts in his hush money trial in New York.

Trump is the first former president to be convicted of felony crimes, and in the same year he will likely face Joe Biden for re-election.

The jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records, in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through hush money payments to a porn actor who said the pair had sex.

A sentencing date has been set for July 11, days before Republicans are meant to publicly announce Trump as their nominee for the election.

Having been convicted of 34 felonies, Trump cannot own a gun, hold public office or even vote in many states – but later this year, he could still become president of the US again.

Will Trump go to prison? The jury’s out on that one.

Former US president Donald Trump (centre) at Manhattan criminal court awaits the jury's verdict during his criminal hush money trial in New York. Photo / New York Post via AP

Regardless of what happens with his sentencing and the other trials he may be facing, one thing critics across the board agree on is that this case is not likely to have much of an impact on Trump’s popularity or even on his campaign.

Some argue his campaign could see a bump in fundraising dollars after the verdict and even as he faces the possibility of spending time in prison, Trump stands a real chance of beating Biden in the presidential race. In fact, he did see a spike in campaign donations on the eve of the verdict, a sign that his supporters are eager to show whose side they’re sticking with, guilty or not.

Polling conducted on the impact of a guilty verdict, prior to the decision on Friday, showed only about 4 per cent of Trump voters would change their mind if he was found guilty.

Trump’s path to the presidency and a second term in the White House was never going to be ordinary.

Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who was with the former president in court last week and serves as co-chair of the Republican National Committee, told Fox News before the verdict Trump would campaign for the presidency if convicted.

According to her, if sentenced to home detention he would do “virtual rallies and campaign events if that is the case”. “We’ll have to play the hand that we’re dealt,” she added.

If he wins in November, the most powerful country in the world will have a convicted felon as their Commander-in-Chief.

It’s not a great look globally and it could be a sign of things to come as controversy never left Trump’s side. Will the US be respected on a world stage with a convicted Trump at the helm? It’s hard to envisage, and yet, if the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that ridiculously outlandish scenarios do occur sometimes.

Standing outside the courtroom on Friday, Trump described the verdict as the result of a “rigged, disgraceful trial”.

“The real verdict is going to be November by the people. This is long from over,” he said.

And, at least on that, he’s not wrong.

The jury may have given Trump a guilty verdict – but we have to wait until later this year to see whether that really matters.