Editorial: Will byelection indicate the way the political wind is blowing?

Labour candidate Georgie Dansey, National candidate Tama Potaka and former Labour MP Gaurav Sharma, who now represents his New Zealand Momentum Party.

This weekend’s Hamilton West byelection offers a test of the public temperature on politics at an interesting time.

Hamilton city is in the thick of some of the issues dominating debate, and the byelection appears to be a genuine tussle rather than a completely one-sided contest - although the National Party would consider it a strong pick-up opportunity.

There are 12 candidates in the contest sparked by former Labour MP Gaurav Sharma’s exit from Parliament, with National’s Tama Potaka and Labour’s Georgie Dansey the frontrunners.

In common with the rest of New Zealand, prospective byelection voters are dealing with cost of living challenges. People involved with community services in Hamilton West say there is increased need for support.

Problems over ram-raid crime in the city have been highlighted, with the Hamilton council - alongside those in Auckland and the Bay of Plenty - getting a slice of funding from the Government for prevention measures.

Dropping property prices and interest rate rises in the housing sector will be felt in the city, which has experienced a building boom.

Despite current hard times for many and widening poverty, the broader trends for Hamilton suggest Auckland’s small southern neighbour is increasingly a success story.

Hamilton has been growing in economic importance in recent years, with GDP of $12 billion last year, as transport links in the region have improved, and New Zealand’s population drifts northward.

The Hamilton City Council noted in an October report that the city’s growth in population, jobs and GDP over the past five years had been higher than the rate for the country as a whole.

But in the foreground are more negative, pressing problems that appear to create a situation ripe for easy pickings for a major opposition party in a byelection, while leaving an incumbent party fearing a backlash.

For Labour, the task is to beat expectations and avoid a trouncing in Hamilton West. That would make it look resilient after weeks of bad news, including an own goal over Three Waters.

An underwhelming result for National could stir doubts that the party is on the right course for the general election next year. There’s much that could still influence the nationwide campaign.

The Government, after being somewhat slow initially to react to the Sandringham killing of Janak Patel, is trying not to be outflanked on crime.

Both the Labour and National leaders have been emphasising their parties’ bona fides on being tough enough to deal with the problem during trips to Hamilton and the nearby Fieldays.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern spoke of measures the Government was taking to reduce crime and said the police were getting new powers to target fleeing drivers. Opposition leader Christopher Luxon has said the Government’s initiatives are not enough and has revived the idea of boot camps for some offenders.

Interestingly, despite this ideal opportunity to give politicians a message on what bothers voters the most, there has been little interest in early voting in Hamilton West so far.

A close result might indicate a general fatigue with political drama and crises after a tiring past few years. As the US Midterm elections showed, people can be wary of political change when a lot of other change is occurring around them.

A tepid turnout and close result in Hamilton could indicate both sides still have it all to play for in 2023.