Editorial: When Covid and the flu collide – is our healthcare system ready?

A Covid-19 wave is taking off as the winter flu season begins, which may lead to people requiring more time off sick and put extra pressure on hospitals. Photo / 123rf

EDITORIAL

As much as the pandemic begins to feel more and more like a distant memory for many, Aotearoa New Zealand is on the cusp of another Covid-19 wave that, according to a modeller, threatens to be as big as the last two. To make matters worse, it will hit in the thick of the winter season.

The most recent wave, which hit just ahead of the summer holidays, pushed weekly hospitalisations to more than 350 – slightly higher than the peak of the preceding “mini-wave” in April last year.

Professor Michael Plank last month told Herald reporter Jamie Morton there had been a “sharp” increase in indicators toward another bump.

Plank explained these waves come in cycles, as immunity wanes and other variants emerge.

“We’re in a cycle now where, when we get a wave, a significant number of people will get infected and develop some immunity, but over time, that population-level immunity decreases due to waning and the arrival of new variants,” he said.

Covid-19 modeller and University of Canterbury professor Michael Plank.

“Eventually, we reach a point where that immunity level has dropped low enough that the virus can start to increase – and the cycle begins again.”

This time, Plank said it was concerning the wave was taking off as the winter flu season begins for already-stretched hospitals – something likely to mean delayed operations for some patients.

“It’s tricky to predict exactly what the flu season is going to look like, but in June, we could be looking at quite high levels of flu, combined with high levels of Covid – and that will certainly put pressure on hospitals.”

Epidemiologist professor Michael Baker is also sounding the alarm. Last month, he said New Zealand is experiencing its highest peak in Covid-19 cases since December 2022.

We might not be in a pandemic any more but that does not mean the risk is gone, especially for our most vulnerable. Even those keen to downplay the severity of Covid-19 cannot deny it adds to the list of winter illnesses that put our immuno-compromised population at further risk.

Additionally, we cannot ignore the domino effect of the bump in hospitalisations a Covid wave brings. The added pressure put on our hospitals and healthcare system in general by a double-whammy of Covid and flu waves could see surgeries delayed and longer waiting times, among other issues.

Despite all this data, the Government is seemingly unbothered. Just as so many of us are about to get sick and schools are having to close because of staff on sick leave, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden has asked businesses for feedback on proposed changes to the Holidays Act, including changes to sick leave rules, which could mean part-time workers are entitled to fewer sick leave days.

While the changes, if implemented, won’t happen for a while, the timing of this announcement is certainly a strange choice.

Outside of the workplace, students missing school due to illness will also be targeted under a Government plan to lift attendance.

“We accept Covid happened but that’s largely subsided now, and yet we still have a doubling of the number of kids kept home for health reasons,” Act leader David Seymour told RNZ’s Checkpoint in April.

“I think we’re going to have to start being a bit clearer about what exactly is a valid reason to stay home.”

In his comments to Morton, Plank said there is still time to get immunised against Covid and the flu, so if you’re due a booster, the best thing you might do is to book yourself for one.

There's a lot of respiratory disease out there at the moment - some of it is Covid (orange), a lot of it is other viruses. It's likely we are close to winter Covid peak whereas flu will probably peak later in the winter.
Not too late to get your Covid + flu vaccines! pic.twitter.com/OqIwPodWiU

— Michael Plank (@MichaelPlankNZ) June 6, 2024