Editorial: What could change the political outlook in the year ahead?

New Hamilton West MP Tama Potaka is flanked by National Party leader Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mike Scott

With another week starting with a stiff blow for Labour, the end of the parliamentary year can’t come soon enough for the Government.

On Saturday National’s candidate Tama Potaka picked up the Hamilton West seat for the main opposition party with 6629 votes in a byelection sparked by the resignation of former Labour MP Gaurav Sharma.

It was a decisive margin of 2285 votes over Labour’s Georgie Dansey who had a solid 4344 herself in a contest between 12 candidates.

The turnout of 14,392 was less than half of the 39,034 ballots cast for the seat in the 2020 general election.

The Act candidate James McDowall had 1462 and Sharma 1156. The non-major party candidates collectively drew more than 3000 votes. Official results will be declared on December 21.

National will take the win, on top of opinion polling, as a sign it is on track to go into the next general election as favourites.

As the party has become more competitive, its views on key issues have been amplified and at times been agenda-setting. It’s in a much better position than it was before the 2020 general election.

But with minor candidates in Hamilton West getting a not insignificant slice of the overall vote, the byelection is hinting voters next year will want to survey the options, rather than just focus on the traditional two.

Although National has pulled slightly ahead in opinion polls, both main parties have obvious vulnerabilities and their potential sidekicks, Act and the Green Party have sizeable and steady support bases. Te Pāti Māori and NZ First would also be in the mix.

That sets the stage for a scramble among the parties for wavering voters perhaps prepared to wander away from the big brands to the boutiques.

New Zealand could be heading for a version of what happened in Australia last May, where voters bolstered independents and small parties at the expense of the major parties.

At present the Government is being viewed through a weary lens after a period of exhausting global events, and the erosion over the past two years - through self-inflicted bungles - of some of the trust it had built up with the public.

But the country is still nearly a year out from an election and foreign events will have a say in what will happen to New Zealand’s economy before then and people’s lives.

Just this month two overseas changes that appear to be significant and influential have occurred.

China is easing its zero-Covid policy of mass testing, quarantine and lockdowns, even as cases rise. Under Omicron the measures are thought to have slowed the country’s economy - the second largest in the world. It will take time to see what impact the move will have.

Ukraine is using drones to strike military bases and fuel tanks, well inside Russia. That could open the way to Kyiv being supplied with longer-range US weapons including bombers. It could be the quickest way to force the Kremlin to end the war.

This time last year there was no war. Since late February the conflict’s downstream impact has swamped countries trying to recover from the pandemic.

Looking ahead to the next election, National is the beneficiary of people worried about their daily struggle and the country’s direction. Labour still has the ability as the government to influence that sentiment, and wider events remain the wild card.