National Party leader Christopher Luxon out for a stroll in Whanganui. Photo / Bevan Conley
National Party leader Christopher Luxon out for a stroll in Whanganui. Photo / Bevan Conley
EDITORIAL
On Thursday, New Zealanders officially found out what they already knew - that life is hard going for a lot of Kiwis at present.
New GDP data for the first quarter of 2023 pushed the country into a “technical” recession - or two negative growth periods ina row.
It’s unlikely the rest of the year will be much better and people know this. Economists have noted that people and businesses are being more careful with their spending and cutting back where they can.
The public has had to be tight with money for about a year with inflationary costs hitting food, fuel and other goods. Despite a fair bit of pandemic escape travel in that time, the hatches are still mostly battened down. Rate hikes and higher regular payments will have to be absorbed.
We share a lot of this situation with other countries. Many have been struggling economically because of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Here, we also had a run of devastating storms over the summer. Even people who avoided the worst may have had a weather repair bill that adds to the load. The IMF has also weighed in on New Zealand’s revenue and tax reform debate.
Economic strain on people’s wallets always feels local, whatever the reasons and the next GDP quarterly data will be out in September - just weeks before the election.
For politicians, these conditions and the rather anxious public mood that belt-tightening produces, are a challenge. That’s even the case for an Opposition with the job of holding the government to account, and who have plenty of ammunition at hand.
People have a lot on their plates they could potentially complain about.
While they might feel worried about their short-term prospects and believe the country is on the wrong track, people generally also want to be reassured that things will pick up soon.
A lot of people get tired of hearing negativity from others, even if they want to vent themselves. And who wants to be called a navel-gazing whiner?
The most talented political leaders know to keep a rhetorical lightbulb of positivity glowing in the background during dark times. Being able to deal with hard realities while still coming across as basically well-meaning and likeable is essential for most leaders.
So when Opposition leader Christopher Luxon uttered one of the more memorable lines of the election campaign this week in an off-stage comment, he appeared to be showing either inexperience or lack of political judgment.
He said that New Zealand had become “a very negative, wet, whiny, inward-looking country” that had “lost the plot”.
Who needs a charm offensive when you can have charm offensiveness?
Luxon subsequently clarified that he meant the Government, not the public, whose votes he needs to become prime minister. But explanations after a gaffe never have quite the same impact as the original unvarnished words.
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins later highlighted Luxon’s original words in the form of a joke about the people at Fieldays: “I haven’t met anyone who’s wet, I haven’t met anyone who’s whiny, I haven’t met anyone who’s inward-looking, I haven’t met anyone who’s really negative... admittedly, I haven’t run into Christopher Luxon yet.”
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins peaking at Fieldays 2023 in Mystery Creek. Photo / Supplied
A potential PM doesn’t want to be gaffe-prone, especially when they become instant social media memes. Luxon hasn’t yet built enough public goodwill to get away with speech stumbles and other mistakes such as his comments on contraception and having children.
Even as the National/Act option seems to be confirming an edge in opinion polling over Labour and the Greens, Luxon appears to be giving the Government a helping hand.
Still, he’s also speaking extensively about National policies, giving voters a sense of what a National-led government would be like, and providing a direct comparison with Labour and Hipkins. The major issues of concern in the election are most likely working in the Opposition’s favour.
Ultimately, the substance of what is being proposed matters the most but Luxon doesn’t appear to be a natural communicator with a common touch. National will be nervous about future tongue trips, especially in the campaign debates.
None of that may matter however, if economic conditions worsen before October or don’t improve enough to suggest a clear light at the end of the tunnel.
