Editorial: Watching from afar - reasons to be interested in the US Midterms

Finance Minister Grant Robertson at the Labour Party conference. Photo / Jed Bradley

There’s sure to be a lot of interest from New Zealand politicians and political analysts regarding the outcome of the US Midterm elections midweek.

Although the two countries’ political systems are very different, they each have voter issues in common.

The US contests for Congress and state offices have in recent months been dominated by concerns over the cost of living, inflation, and interest rate rises. Once again, as it was back in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

According to the Pew Research Centre, other top issues for American voters include education, health, energy, and violent crime.

These are conversations applicable to politics here, and they are likely to spill into New Zealand’s 2023 election campaign.

There are also other key issues in the Midterms more relevant to the US than here, such as fears over the country’s democracy, abortion, guns, and immigration. A Gallup survey puts the economy, abortion and crime as the top voter concerns.

Democrats and Republicans have different priorities, but overwhelmingly negative attitudes on the state of the economy work in favour of the GOP.

That’s despite the unemployment rate still being very low, at 3.7 per cent. In New Zealand, it’s 3.3 per cent.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the Republicans ahead in the race to pick up both the Senate and House of Representatives. The Cook Political Report has the party most likely to gain the Senate, while there are 35 toss-up House contests.

In the background is the tradition of the Midterms often being a protest vote - the incumbent president’s party usually suffers a backlash in the first test after the leader’s election.

The weekend’s Labour Party conference was further evidence that the New Zealand election campaign is effectively under way, with Finance Minister Grant Robertson describing National as “inexperienced, out of touch and stuck in the past”.

He attacked National’s tax-cutting plans by drawing on an overseas example - Britain’s most recent former prime minister Liz Truss - of what could go wrong.

Robertson called National leader Christopher Luxon “Liz Luxon” and linked the party’s current policies to previous ones.

“The tune has never changed for National. The band used to be called ‘Ruth Richardson and The Knights of the Round Table’ - now it’s called ‘Chris Luxon and the TrickleDowners’.”

It’s probably an effective reminder of the past for the Labour Party faithful.

If the governing party aims to present itself as the reliable and experienced choice, it will most likely need signs of economic recovery to take to voters - and be able to show how it helped shape it.

National deputy leader Nicola Willis jabbed back: “Labour should stop talking about National and refocus on delivering for struggling New Zealanders who expect the Government to do better for them.”

Yesterday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern revealed a $189 million boost to the Government’s childcare subsidies scheme to ease cost-of-living stresses on families with low to middle-class levels of income.

Labour has emphasised a path of spending restraint going forward, which is key to being seen as responsible stewards of the economy, but limits the party’s options.

The childcare changes, which will see an extra 10,000 children qualify for subsidies on pre- and after-school care, are a way of making a targeted impact for families who need help most, and who traditionally tend to be part of Labour’s voter base.

A battle to shore up party support is under way. The US elections will at least provide some pointers.