Editorial: Urging caution as Nato digs in over Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo / AP

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's plea to Nato to emphasise diplomacy in dealing with global tensions was probably what any leader of a small Western democracy would want to say.

There are a number of countries like New Zealand with few ways of influencing moves made by wealthy and powerful members of the northern military alliance.

They are left to watch uneasily as major policy decisions are made, billions are spent on defence, and geopolitical strategies shift. These changes tend to develop a momentum of their own, with counter-moves in response.

In this situation, the PM urging careful approaches, compromise and talks is probably a good way of promoting a sense of balance - as attitudes harden amid crises.

Ardern said: "We have seen escalation in our region. Rather than heightening, we seek to use diplomacy and dialogue to (bring down) the temperature."

However, the horse appears to have bolted on her additional suggestion that Russia's war in Ukraine should ideally not result in an arms race.

Describing it as "a war of Russia versus all those who hold a basic sense of humanity and chose to act on it", Ardern hoped that "we do not allow the legacy of the war in Ukraine to become an arms race, or an even more polarised and dangerous world. Our solidarity with Ukraine must be matched by an equal commitment to strengthen international institutions, multilateral forums, and disarmament."

The war has had a huge impact on Nato, which had teetered on the edge of irrelevance in recent years but is now focused on a common foe.

Nato at its summit in Spain declared Russia as its main opponent - "a direct threat" - and invited Sweden and Finland into the alliance.

It is deploying more troops and weapons to member countries in Eastern Europe. Rapid response forces in Eastern Europe will be boosted from 40,000 to 300,000.

There will be an extra 20,000 US troops in Europe to 100,000; a US garrison in Poland; two additional squadrons of F-35 fighter jets in Britain and increased weaponry in Germany and Italy.

Ukraine says its monthly defence costs are about US$5 billion. Leaders are now meeting in Lugano, Switzerland, on what Ukraine's post-war recovery would involve.

The Biden Administration last week announced a further US$820 million in military aid for Ukraine, bringing its contribution so far to more than US$8.8b. Sweden is sending an extra US$49m in military aid. Britain has provided £2.3b in war support and £1.5b in other help.

Nato's defence spending is set to rise. After the invasion, Germany announced a €100b fund to improve its military and vowed to maintain a defence target of 2 per cent of GDP. Denmark, Sweden and Finland said they would boost their defence spending.

The Nato summit in Madrid also described China as a "challenge" to global stability and the Asian power is estimated to be the biggest global military spender after the US, with India third. Japan and South Korea are regional neighbours in the top 10.

Amid all the manoeuvring, leaders of some of the major Nato countries are facing increasing storm fronts on domestic policy - economically, politically and socially.

Whether this creates more pressure for a negotiated settlement for the war or not, the Western stance against Vladimir Putin's Russia is becoming more entrenched.