Former United States President Donald Trump. Photo / AP
Former United States President Donald Trump. Photo / AP
EDITORIAL
Former United States President Donald Trump has been yesterday’s man in American politics since losing the 2020 presidential election.
But it has taken a long time for many in his Republican Party and the US media to accept the reality.
The House of Representatives January 6 committee has nowhammered a hefty nail in Trump’s political coffin by recommending that the Justice Department bring criminal charges against him.
It comes at a time when Trump is no longer protected by the presidency and is increasingly unpopular. The unprecedented recommended charges are conspiracy to defraud the US, obstruction of an official proceeding of Congress, conspiracy to make a false statement and aiding an insurrection.
What happens next would be up to Attorney-General Merrick Garland and special counsel Jack Smith, but Trump would have to be Lazarus to come back from this on top of everything else.
Illustration / Rod Emmerson
Trump, who is the only declared Republican presidential candidate so far, is also facing three civil trials.
The writing has been on the wall for Trump since he was handily beaten two years ago by Democrat Joe Biden.
Despite that loss by millions of votes, impeachment, false claims of election fraud, bungling the crucial early stages of the pandemic, the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol, and numerous legal actions against him, Trump was still considered the Republican frontrunner for 2024.
That’s because he retained his cult-like status with the Republican base, effectively preventing the party from moving on. But the base is only about a third of voters.
It took this year’s midterm elections in November to prove definitively that Trump is enough of a turn-off to independent voters to doom his and his party’s prospects.
The Democrats, with support from independents, won several important races for the Senate and governorships against Trump-endorsed candidates. There was a general theme of most voters preferring competence to culture war chaos. Biden’s job approval according to FiveThirtyEight is now up to 45 per cent - his best result in 14 months.
And this occurred in an economic environment heavily favourable to the Republicans. Instead of regaining both houses of Congress, the party will only narrowly control the House of Representatives from January 3.
The midterms proved to be a watershed moment, giving a Republican rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a chance to shine. Like an unhappy spouse spying an alternative romantic option, DeSantis has spurred Republicans to jump ship.
Opinion polls of hypothetical party primary fields have shown Republican voters preferring DeSantis to Trump. This has coincided with the influential Fox News changing its tune on the former president.
Republican voters do not appear to have turned against Trumpism - just the first generation of it. DeSantis would be a younger, slicker, more disciplined upgrade of it. He could also be a more politically successful version, although his nationwide and cross-voter appeal is untested.
It’s the potential that DeSantis could be more appealing to independents and so put the Democrats’ winning formula at risk, that is the real blow to Trump’s plans.
With a shrinking support base to offer political protection, Trump is deep in legal jeopardy and lacking credibility as a candidate for 2024.
