Editorial: The delicate art of extreme weather forecasting

Flooding at Awatoto in 2023 following Cyclone Gabrielle.

EDITORIAL

Just three weeks into the new year and a group of New Zealanders was once again warned to prepare for a massive deluge threatening landslides, flooding and isolation.

On January 18, MetService issued its most extreme heavy rain warning for Westland, saying an incredible 800mm could fall over the following 48 hours.

Sandbags were handed out, Civil Defence staff called in from across the South Island and a local state of emergency was declared, prompting the closure of State Highway 6.

Luckily, the extreme flooding never eventuated and the region escaped unscathed. Westland District Mayor Helen Lash said it was a good test of the district’s emergency response.

“We’ve been fortunate this time around, but it’s great to know that we have the skill and expertise on hand to respond to these events as and when we need to,” Lash said.

Within days it was North Islanders being put on notice, with an “upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex” on the way. A lot to process before the kids were even back at school.

There’s no question we need to improve our preparedness for extreme weather events - one only has to reflect on this time last year when Auckland was grappling with the devastating aftermath of the anniversary weekend floods.

Evacuations during last January's Auckland floods. Photo / Hayden Woodward

Four people died and more than 7000 properties were damaged in what Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown has since described as “an important wake-up call”.

A wake-up call in terms of the need to make widespread improvements to infrastructure, governance - and communication.

A damning review into the handling of the floods was particularly critical of Brown’s leadership, specifically the time it took for him to place the region in a state of emergency. That didn’t happen until 10pm, when flooding was already widespread.

This - and the devastation caused by Cyclone Gabrielle just a month later - has changed the landscape when it comes to releasing information about approaching weather systems.

Evacuations during Cyclone Gabrielle in Napier. Photo / Paul Taylor

MetService has just introduced push notifications so people can receive the latest weather updates straight to their phone.

It’s a partnership with Fire and Emergency New Zealand, meaning the organisations can also alert people to an extreme fire danger risk nearby.

MetService head of weather communication Lisa Murray said it’s the most direct way the service can warn people.

“With climate change and more extreme weather events, this tool is really helping us better prepare Aotearoa New Zealand for a more extreme wildfire and weather environment,” Murray said.

“These notifications are one of the steps we’re taking to warn more Kiwis of dangerous weather.”

Well-intentioned and logical, but there’s a fine line for forecasters to tread this year between informing Kiwis and driving weather anxiety and apathy.

When a storm hits or emergency unfolds, there is already a flood of information released by news outlets, councils and Civil Defence, and shared across social media.

This year will deliver more extreme weather for New Zealand and we all have a part to play in keeping ourselves informed and safe.

Residents - many traumatised and anxious after the events of last year - will be looking for improved guidance and leadership, clearer lines of communication and advance warning.

For forecasters, it’s shaping up to be a watershed year, as they try to better predict the unpredictability of cyclones and weather fronts without overloading those in the firing line.

The delicate art of getting it right will come down to sharp decision-making and timing.