A new year dawns. Suddenly it feels like a clean slate awaiting events and inviting new ideas. Tempting predictions.
Not much about 2019 is predictable. The globe will get warmer but that just makes the weather less predictable. The President of the United States will be less constrained by moderating advice but will face a Democrat controlled Congress. He may be less powerful at home, more imperious abroad.
His trade war with China might deepen into a cold war on all fronts. His sanctions on Iran might revive its nuclear weapons programme, destabilising the Middle East more. His withdrawal of troops from Syria and probably from Afghanistan will give more sway to Russia and allow the return of the Taliban.
Britain will stumble to Brexit on March 29. The European Union, though, will be more concerned with internal problems such as immigration policy, the Italian economy and nationalist governments in Eastern Europe. Externally it will watching Russian threats to Ukraine and the fears those feed in the Baltic states.
New Zealand enters the second year of a government that has spent most of its first year commissioning studies of reforms. Two of those reports are in and they illustrate the limited value of these exercises. The report on mental health contains few concrete proposals behind setting up a permanent advisory commission and spending more on a variety of mental health needs rather than the most serious illnesses.
