Editorial: Russia Ukraine war to get worse in the east as conflict digs in

An explosion is seen in an apartment building after a Russian Army tank fires in Mariupol, Ukraine. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL:

As Kiwis enjoyed a sunny and peaceful Easter, the conflict on the opposite side of the world that New Zealand and other countries are taking sides in is clearly deepening.

As many observers had previously predicted, the war in Ukraine is digging in for a protracted stay. The window to an early escape from the fighting has closed.

Battlefield developments from uncovered atrocities to military successes and weaknesses are pushing the war further into one of brutal attrition.

Russia has failed to capture any major cities in seven weeks, although yesterday its Defence Ministry claimed it had taken the key strategic port city of Mariupol.

Its artillery, missiles and troops have caused serious damage and death.

Ukraine has proved more successful than expected, causing its Western backers to adjust their level and type of support as the war has gone on. It remains vulnerable to Russia's artillery and missiles, and the Kyiv Government has to maintain its hold on land it has retaken.

As the Russian campaign regroups in a more concentrated area of eastern Ukraine, Kyiv has urgently sought specific heavy weapons for future fighting there.

There could be months of conflict in the Donbas region ahead. One expert describes the next phase as "likely be a war of attrition focused on the Donbas, with the possibility of Russia re-opening its front north of Kyiv".

Moscow's current impotence in the Ukrainian capital is shown by the parade of foreign leaders able to visit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy there - including Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Yet Russia's military is capable of sustained destruction, as shown previously in Syria, despite battlefield costs. Ukraine has said its own military has suffered up to 3000 dead and 10,000 wounded. An unverified Ukrainian estimate of Russia's dead is about 20,000.

Kyiv authorities say about 900 civilians have been found dead in areas near the capital after Russian occupation. Russia has accused Ukraine of shelling Russian border villages. Moscow humiliatingly lost its Black Sea flagship the Moskva last week but responded with attacks in Kyiv, claiming it had struck a weapons plant. Ukraine said it had struck the ship with missiles.

The Kremlin has warned of "unpredictable consequences" should Nato continue to supply weapons. The potential nuclear risks of applying more pressure to Russian President Vladimir Putin have been publicly aired by the United States and Ukraine.

However, reports say the US and United Kingdom are not only sending hardware, they are offering training in its use as well.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has said the US was "not operating inside the territory of Ukraine". It has been claimed that British SAS troops are in Kyiv training soldiers to use anti-tank missiles.

Then there's the looming likelihood of Sweden and Finland joining Nato. That would add 1290km of border between Russia and Nato countries. While a change from neutral status would not be what Putin desires, it also means greater ground for Nato to cover.

New Zealand's contribution to the war has risen in steps. That has also been the pattern elsewhere.

Last week, the US added an extra US$800 million in military aid to Ukraine, bringing its total to US$3.2 billion (NZ$4.7b) under President Joe Biden. On Thursday, the EU announced a further US$544m in military support.

More specific supplies, training and strategies are drawing Nato countries in further as the fighting looks likely to get worse.