Editorial: Russia Ukraine war Putin's annexation shows struggling 'strongman' on the back foot

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks about regions of Ukraine joining Russia, in Red Square in Moscow. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL:

Vladimir Putin is an expert at trying to put the best spin on his actions, as though he's always operating from a position of strength.

The Russian President's move to illegally annex areas of eastern and southern Ukraine is classic Putin: bold, outrageous, a sweeping chessboard move.

It's an old dish reheated - Russia's annexation of Crimea in Ukraine from 2014 - in a different context, and this time with the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions after sham referendums.

It is Putin in his favourite strongman pose: decisive, intimidatory, and seemingly putting his opponents on the back foot.

But it shouldn't mask the reality that Putin is the one on the back foot.

The move to claim sovereignty over four areas of Ukraine partly occupied by Russian forces is made from Putin's struggling position of shrinking and more extreme options.

It comes after humiliating battlefield setbacks, a mass military call-up, and domestic protests. Russia's military does not entirely control any of the four regions.

Hours after Putin's announcement, Ukrainian troops entered the city of Lyman in Donetsk, after Russian troops withdrew.

Putin's war hasn't been going his way and he's escalating in response.

Although this is clearly a dangerous stage of a dangerous conflict, the Kremlin's opponents cannot lose their nerve. Pressure needs to continue to be applied, even though the cost is huge and dealing with a leader who can't bear losing makes it especially risky.

Foreign policy experts have been recalculating the threat of a Russian nuclear strike although other bad options, such as a missile landing on a key target chosen to have a devastating effect, would be far more likely.

Ukraine has shown that with enough support it can make military progress and Putin has shown he has become problematic beyond the point of political rehabilitation.

Apart from his battlefield aggression, Putin has been prepared to play with nuclear threats and energy blackmail to countries beyond Ukraine's borders.

Putin's claim of 15 per cent of Ukraine, while warning of any attack on Russian territory, is an unsubtle attempt to get Ukraine's backers to back off and force Kyiv to back down.

Gas cuts from Russia to the rest of Europe as winter approaches have been complicated by pipeline leaks in the Baltics. The UN says it's likely the biggest single release of methane ever recorded. Both Russia and the EU have suggested sabotage.

In response to the annexation move, United States President Joe Biden restated support for Kyiv and the US is providing an extra US$12 billion (NZ$21b). He said the US would defend Nato territory: "So Mr Putin, don't misunderstand what I'm saying".

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proved adept at applying pressure to all sides to advance his country's interests.

He used Putin's claim that Russia was defending itself from the West against the Russian leader. Zelenskyy argued that Ukraine deserved membership of Nato because Kyiv was protecting the West from a Russia that "wants to rewrite history and redraw borders". He said Ukraine was a "de facto" member of Nato and was making an application to make it official.

Ukraine joining Nato is a red line for Putin and is highly unlikely to happen while the war rages, as the alliance would have to actively defend Ukraine territory. Putin has so far avoided any moves that would draw Nato directly into the war.

But Zelenskyy raising the prospect of future Nato membership for Kyiv and Ukraine's military advances have punctured Putin's manufactured moment of success.