Editorial: Returnees arrive to Omicron in ascendency

Kiwis coming from Australia can now self isolate at home. Photo / RNZ

Editorial

EDITORIAL

The words "record-breaking" have become superfluous when describing New Zealand's Omicron surge — with nearly each daily case count outdoing the last.

There were 12,011 new community cases on Friday, 13,606 on Saturday, and 14,941 on Sunday.

It hardly seems a great time for any overseas Kiwis to arrive home, but fully vaccinated New Zealanders in Australia — and soon from elsewhere in the world — now have the opportunity to come home without the need to enter MIQ or self-isolate.

The questions are how high will the outbreak go, and when will it start to fall?

In Australia's outbreak, it took a month from when case numbers started to rise to when they peaked on January 13 at 4235 per one million people on a seven-day rolling average, according to Ourworldindata.org.

From the peak, the main slide took three weeks to occur, reaching 868 per one million people on February 5. Then numbers fell further before rising slightly.

If the same pattern holds here then New Zealand's peak should be around mid-March, which is in line with what the Government has said it expects.

With the numbers of infections, changes to testing with more use of RATs, and focus on home care it's much harder for experts to pinpoint the likely maximum figures.

But if daily case numbers continue to rise at the pace reported at the weekend, it could be a very sharp peak.

Omicron continues to be a challenge for authorities trying to present consistent messages about the variant. Most people up-to-date on their vaccine shots will likely get a mild form if infected. But the huge load of infections means more people will land in hospital and there will be more deaths. An encouraging aspect is that the numbers of people with Omicron in ICU have remained low.

The Ministry of Health has identified a few issues in recent days.

On Saturday, it said that about 30 per cent of people due to get a booster hadn't done so yet. Obviously a proportion of people don't understand the need or urgency to get boosters.

On Sunday, the ministry noted the generational divide between those more likely to get infected - teenagers and twentysomethings - and those more likely to wind up in hospital, who are mostly aged over 50.

"In the past fortnight, 59 per cent [of cases] have been under 30 years of age and 12 per cent over the age of 50," the ministry said.

"This reflects similar trends seen overseas where younger people, who are more socially active, often have higher infection rates, though it is the older age groups which are most likely to require hospital treatment from Covid-19."

A current survey of mask-use in New Zealand and take-up among the age groups would make interesting reading.

The data suggests that older people need to be more cautious for their own safety among younger, more mobile people, such as wearing good quality masks, meeting in ventilated areas, and keeping their distance.

At this stage, people should know how to keep themselves safe. It's a matter of getting through this difficult period.