The battle for the benches, in many minds, comes down to a choice between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins Photo montage / NZ Herald
The battle for the benches, in many minds, comes down to a choice between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins Photo montage / NZ Herald
OPINION
On the morning of January 19, it seemed to all who cared to look that the National Party would drift to victory in this election year.
The big news on that day was expected to be National Party leader Christopher Luxon’s announcement from a caucus retreat in Napier ofhis new shadow cabinet to contest for the front benches in the upcoming election.
But, across town in the same city, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stole the march on Luxon’s moment by setting an election date of October 14. She then delivered a microphone drop by announcing her resignation. It is said there were cheers and hugs at the National Party gathering.
It was assumed Ardern’s departure would finally end Labour’s glide on “Jacindamania” which had carried the party to unprecedented sole governance under the MMP system. Political commentator and former National press secretary Ben Thomas said Ardern’s resignation could spell disaster for her party as “she’s Labour’s number one political asset”.
But the first substantial samplings of public opinion on Monday night revealed another outcome. Bryce Edwards has helpfully combined the 1News and Newshub polls to show party vote results of Labour 38 (up 5.5); National 37 (down 2.5); Act 10 (no change); Greens 7.5 (down 1.5); Te Pāti Māori 1.4 (down 0.5); NZ First 2.1 (down 1.5).
Speaking with Newstalk ZB yesterday about the poll figures, Luxon said Hipkins’ fortunes had risen because the office of PM was behind him.
”Look, they are going to bounce around. Nothing’s changed, it’s the same government, a new leader who can’t deliver.”
The reference to a bounce hints none-too-subtly at the question: is this a “dead cat bounce” for this Government?
Luxon knows National still has more to do to make its case to New Zealanders. The party had hoped to spend the election talking about Labour’s delivery failures, slow Covid-19 vaccine rollout, the MIQ lottery, overlong lockdown restrictions in Auckland and testing kit mix-ups.
Despite Hipkins’ association, as former Covid Response Minister, with all of these past misdemeanours, his promotion to the ninth floor of the Beehive has (at this early stage at least) changed the public’s perception of him and readjusted views to the way ahead rather than on the past.
Illustration / Rod Emmerson
There’s no doubt these polls are an alarm bell to the wheelhouse of the National Party.
Herald political editor Claire Trevett has already emphasised the trouble that Luxon is now in: “It’s not a good start to the year for National Party leader Christopher Luxon, who also delivered National an initial bump when he took over a bit over a year ago. He has managed to keep the party in the mid-30s – but has not managed to drag it back into the 40s yet, and his own approval ratings have stagnated.”
Labour’s fortunes suddenly look chipper. The game has changed and is well afoot. Luxon’s period of grace to learn his craft and find his feet is over. If it is to succeed, National can no longer hope to drift over the line. Luxon will need to drive it there.
