More than once, the Prime Minister has warned that, at some time, a boatload of desperate people will wash up on our shores. More than once, refugees claiming to be attempting to do just that have failed miserably. Three years ago, a small group of Chinese nationals who said their intended destination was New Zealand made it as far as Darwin. Now, a far larger group who are said to have had the same ambition are being held in a detention centre in West Timor after their boat hit rocks off a remote Indonesian island.
The 65 asylum seekers, mainly Sri Lankans and Bangladeshis, have circulated photographs and a letter pleading for help from the New Zealand Government.
There is nothing about this episode that should spook New Zealanders. Despite John Key's pronouncements, there is very little to suggest boatloads of asylum seekers are about to descend on this country. It would take a remarkable feat of seamanship to reach here.
The small boats they use can usually handle the placid seas of the tropics but would not last long in the heavy swells to the north of New Zealand. Last week, Mr Key said the latest asylum seekers had a credible chance of making this country. In fact, they ended up shipwrecked after being intercepted by the Australian Navy.