Editorial: Omicron is daunting but NZ is as prepared as we can be

Associate Health Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall explaining the Government's three-phase approach to managing Omicron. Photo / Mark Mitchell, Pool

EDITORIAL

For a country that has escaped the worst health consequences of the pandemic, the thought that New Zealand could be soon facing tens of thousands of Covid-19 infections would be hard for many people to take in.

Yet modelling by an overseas health research group predicts the country could face 50,000 daily Omicron infections, including asymptomatic ones, in early February and that wave could peak at about 80,000 in one day. It's modelling for reported daily cases predicts a peak of 11,000 in March.

That's an unsettling prospect for a country where total deaths from the pandemic sat at 52 this week, and confirmed cases have reached about 15,800 over two years.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation also calculates that an Omicron outbreak here would last about three months. Death rates would be more than 400.

Current vaccination pace, mask-wearing and booster uptake inform the modelling scenarios, and the institute is right to highlight those factors.

Booster rates in New Zealand and Australia are certainly behind some comparable smaller countries in Europe, according to Our World in Data.

Calculating booster doses per 100 people, it says New Zealand has 23 and Australia 28. That compares, for example, to Finland (42), Greece (45), Norway (47), the Netherlands (48), Ireland (54), Belgium (55) and Denmark (61).

Information on OWID, which uses confirmed case data from Johns Hopkins University, gives an idea of how things could play out based on overseas Omicron outbreaks.

For instance, OWID calculates a seven day rolling average of confirmed new Covid cases per million people. Australia's Omicron peak was 4235 on January 13. It had dropped to 2041 on January 26. A peak at that top rate would translate to about 21,000 cases in one day at the height of an outbreak in New Zealand.

New Zealand peaks based on other outbreaks where cases have begun to fall, in the countries mentioned above, would be: 43,000 (Ireland), 24,000 (Greece), and 8400 (Finland).

Notably, the spikes in Australia, Ireland, Greece and Finland have occurred primarily over a month from mid-December to mid-January, which offers hope the Omicron wave here could be similarly short. However, the outbreaks in Denmark, Belgium, Norway and the Netherlands have yet to drop.

It is worth remembering that coronavirus models overestimated the risk during the Delta outbreak in New Zealand and then the possible impacts of changes to Covid strategy over summer.

It could be that models underestimate Kiwis' resilience and ability to quickly adapt when the going gets rough. A combination of policies and public action brought New Zealand close to subduing Delta - twice.

We are also forewarned and in summer conditions: that means some measures such as working from home where possible should reduce spread and activities can still occur fairly safely outdoors.

The closest relevant example to New Zealand in this situation is Australia, which is also in summer, but it was hit by Omicron in December as restrictions there were being relaxed. Border restrictions are still in place here and health measures have been tightened slightly from orange to red in the traffic light settings.

Under a three-phase plan, the use of rapid antigen tests would increase once Omicron case numbers grew beyond 1000 a day. The Government said the tests would be used in essential businesses to try to cut down on disruption of staff being off sick or isolating. Amid the row over such tests, common sense says that they should be used where they are most needed to try to keep supply chains running.

Plenty of people here will react to the current threat by essentially hunkering down until the hurricane passes. Omicron could concentrate people's minds when it comes to mask-wearing. People who can't get high-quality masks can still improve their chances by double-masking instead.

The fear will be that Omicron could hit vulnerable communities disproportionately and people in larger households will find it hard to isolate.

New Zealand's Omicron wave could end up looking different to Australia's. Kiwis' past compliance and the country's precautions could mean the wave includes a lower level of infections that takes slightly longer to peak and drop.