Editorial: Nato keeps Zelenskyy and Ukraine stuck in a corridor

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Nato summit in Vilnius. Photo / Prime Minister's Office

The big meeting on the sidelines of the Nato Summit for the prime minister did not go as planned. Chris Hipkins had a quick chat with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a corridor instead.

The reason was mundane: the Ukrainian president’s previous meeting with United States President Joe Biden had run over time, and Hipkins had a plane to catch from Vilnius.

Symbolically, that passageway reflected the summit in Lithuania as a whole and where Ukraine is at geopolitically.

The summit was caught between making progress by traditional standards but not quite grabbing an historic opportunity in extraordinary times.

While Sweden is now expected to join the alliance, Ukraine is still waiting for the green light - as it has been since 2008. The alliance reaffirmed Ukraine’s future is in Nato but did not provide any steps, timeframe, or extra security guarantees for it to get there quickly.

Sweden’s joint bid for membership with Finland had been delayed. Having both northern countries now set to join is a big deal.

Nato will have a dominating presence throughout the Baltic Sea, and two militarily strong countries to support smaller neighbours Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. It will be able to monitor Russian activity in the Barents Sea and add to Nato’s visibility in the north, where Sweden and Finland are members of the Arctic Council.

Both the northern countries joining and Ukraine set on a fast track to membership would bring the risk of more military escalation and security competition, but also stretch Russia from the Barents to the Black Sea.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion and determination to keep going despite the costs has driven countries that are able to, like Sweden and Finland, to get on the safer side of a hard future military border.

Ukraine is currently unable to, and the country has no real future if it is cut off from the European Union and Nato. As a non-member promised future membership of the alliance, Ukraine could be and was picked off by Russia.

Putin’s invasion was about territory expansion. The supply of weapons to Ukraine and Russian setbacks has not deterred Moscow in the war, and the Kremlin has used nuclear threats to warn Nato about getting directly involved.

Ukraine asserts it is absorbing Russia’s aggression on behalf of Western Europe. It clearly needs better Western security guarantees while the war continues, and even greater help to force a Russian withdrawal from its territory. Nato is to train Ukrainian pilots to use F-16s and France is to provide long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv.

Yesterday’s strike on the bridge linking Crimea and Russia - a war supply route - could signal a strategic shift by Ukraine, an attempt to regain some battlefield momentum. Reports say it involved a remote-controlled drone boat. The bridge was attacked last October with a truck bomb.

Experts debate whether Putin might be encouraged to keep fighting to prevent Ukraine from joining Nato and the European Union. But as long as Ukraine is not a member of Nato, it’s vulnerable anyway to an exhausting endless war or a repeat future conflict.

The Kremlin could yet take advantage of gradual Western fatigue with the war and desire for an endgame. If the membership question is not settled, Moscow could try to turn it into a future bargaining chip during negotiations to withdraw from Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine would be a major asset for Nato’s collective security if it managed to get into that room. At present, the country is stuck in a corridor.