Editorial: National’s youth crime policy is something old as something new

National Party leader Christopher Luxon. Photo / Marty Melville

There are different ways of considering policy announcements as New Zealand’s election draws nearer.

One is whether or not they will be effective electoral bait and reel in votes. Another is whether they might be effective and useful in a practical sense, or not. And then, there’s: what do they say about the country’s direction?

There’s also the wider political situation new policies are dropping into. What voter nerves are parties trying to tap? What kind of an election is this going to be?

That last one is clouded. The economic situation is difficult for the Government, and other issues concern and annoy people and make them fearful. But in a world which seems unstable and often incomprehensible, does that inspire caution when voting, or the throwing of caution to the wind?

Ultimately, will it be a protest-vote election or a stick-with-it election? Is it a choice between which bloc voters believe would be better managers of the country?

Polling data gives different clues. The overall picture is tight, with growing pessimism over the economy. Yet Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is still the most popular leader and a known quantity.

For his part, Opposition leader Christopher Luxon is the captain of a steadier ship than the one he inherited. He has done enough to bring National up to be level pegging with Labour in readiness for the final sprint. He can still stumble under pressure, and was forced to clean up over clean cars last week.

National’s major policy announcements on tax cuts, crime, gangs, and transport have been predictable.

The latest - sending the worst young offenders to military-style bootcamps for up to 12 months - appears to be a direct appeal to National’s base. Labour launched its own law and order measures earlier this year, but Luxon last week charged that the Government was “soft on crime”.

Experts point out that the causes of offending are nuanced, and while police data showed an increase in youth crime incidents this year, in recent years the trendline has been falling.

Highlighting ram-raids makes a connection with the public’s general disgust and impatience with crime in the community and their sympathy for victims - often small business owners, targeted repeatedly. Populist, emotionally loaded approaches can be effective voter lures because they speak to people’s fears, anger, and desire for something to be done.

Acting Prime Minister Grant Robertson said in reply: “It’s a policy that’s been proven to fail in the past, and all it will deliver is fitter, faster criminals. National is just reheating failed policies.”

The plan recalls National’s 2010 approach under John Key, which was later dropped. A 2012 report revealed there was a high re-offending rate. National brought the idea back during the 2017 election campaign the party lost.

In the US, President Joe Biden took some chances ahead of the midterm elections, including on cancelling student debt, and there was a high youth turnout for the Democrats in response. Both main parties here could also consider new policies ahead.

With Luxon about 15 per cent behind Ardern as preferred prime minister, leaning into divisive issues could carry risk for the National leader.

For all the comparisons with Key, Luxon lacks the former prime minister’s confidence-inspiring breeziness, which made swing voters warm to him. And Ardern’s calm and charm was on display at overseas meetings with leaders last week.

As the parties spar over policies, they shouldn’t forget that voters do want hope, reassurance, and plans with some new ideas, rather than ones pulled from the past.