National Party politics - and, by extension, New Zealand politics - have suddenly become very uncertain. The nod to stability which outgoing Prime Minister John Key signalled on Monday with his endorsement of loyal deputy Bill English as his successor was shaken twice yesterday.
The first knock was delivered by Jonathan Coleman with his decision to make it a contest. A few hours later, Judith Collins entered the race, saying the party needed to broaden its appeal.
The three candidates represent quite different political strands. English, an MP since 1990, appeals to a sense of continuity and steadiness. He does not stand for the generational change which Coleman is promoting, but he has runs on the board as the author of eight budgets and an approach to political management which is competent and composed.
If he has a weak spot, it is that he has been judged previously by the electorate and was leader in 2002 when National suffered a crushing defeat. English learned from that humiliation, and is today a mature and skilful politician who would make a seamless transition from the Key era.
At 54, English has a career to reflect on, and enough time ahead of him to make his own mark. With judicious appointments to his team, especially in the role of deputy, an English-led administration could realistically hope to secure a fourth term for National, even without the undoubted selling ability that the Government will lose with the departure of Key.