Former Green MP Elizabeth Kerekere Kerekere will now sit in Parliament as an independent MP until the election, when she plans to retire. Photo / Doug Sherring, File
Former Green MP Elizabeth Kerekere Kerekere will now sit in Parliament as an independent MP until the election, when she plans to retire. Photo / Doug Sherring, File
EDITORIAL
Last week’s political musical chairs have shaken perceptions of the main parties and the electoral landscape.
So, what are the main takeaways for voters?
The situation is probably worse for Labour because Meka Whaitiri’s decision to sit as an independent and then stand for Te Pāti Māori, and GreenMP Elizabeth Kerekere’s plan to leave, could be interpreted as part of a pattern of tiredness and strain within the Government and nervousness about its prospects.
Before these latest dramas, Labour had already lost its former leader, Jacinda Ardern, and knew it would be losing experienced MPs. Sullied ex-minister Stuart Nash planned to bow out. Late last year six Labour MPs, including three ministers, announced they would retire.
Illustration / Rod Emmerson
While Hipkins’ rise to the top job and his work in it has been generally well received, that honeymoon period has only been enough to bring Labour and the Greens into a competitive position with National and Act in opinion polls.
The clear implication of the polls is that, barring a major shift, Te Pāti Māori will have the government-making votes. Perhaps Whaitiri saw her move as a chance to have more influence post-election.
National leader Christopher Luxon referred to “a Labour, Greens, Te Pati Māori bloc that’s coming together” since it suits his party to present itself and Act versus a more unwieldy coalition. The more attention on what the Greens and Te Pāti Māori might demand of Labour; the fewer questions are asked about what Act might get for propping up a National government.
On current polling, both main parties and their preferred partners would most likely need Te Pati Māori support to gain 61 seats for a majority.
The lack of decisive poll movement either way in recent months is the most interesting.
The Government looks weather-beaten from both real and economic winds but it’s now a cautious and experienced known quantity; at least aware of the challenges the country faces, even if it is too slow to act for some.
National has benefited from a period of party stability and conditions that suit an Opposition. It has a tax-cut package up its sleeve. But, with polling tight, the electorate still doesn’t appear sold on the need to switch. Since 1990 it has been the pattern for blue or red governments to last nine years.
Under Luxon, there’s a streak of National looking backwards - boot camps, rental evictions, live animal exports, back-to-basics education - that probably appeals to people troubled by major changes the country and world have been going through and will continue to deal with.
With the choice being between two blocs, there may be more ideological vote-switching between likely partners.
Or it could be that the trends highlighting the minor parties’ potential influence have become clear enough that a swing back to the major parties occurs before October.
