Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield recommended Covid 19 alert level 4 remain in place for five further days before easing to level 3. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield recommended Covid 19 alert level 4 remain in place for five further days before easing to level 3. Photo / Mark Mitchell
EDITORIAL
Shapes have become significant analogies for explaining what is going on with the Covid-19 pandemic. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern brandished a graph showing how we could "flatten the curve" of the rate of infections to allow our hospitals time to prepare for outbreaks.
The planned move to alert level3 at one minute before midnight on Monday, April 27 fits with the narrative that we have smashed the curve. But that could change in a breath.
In many respects, the shapes of alert level 4 and level 3 are very similar - work from home if you can; social distance; maintain small spheres of contact with people; wash hands with soap and cough into elbows; and if sick, stay home and contact a GP.
However, the potential level 3 allows for businesses and schools is shaping as a lifeline for many New Zealanders at breaking point. From next Tuesday, all businesses deemed to be capable of operating safely will be permitted to do so.
Ardern has been rightly reminded that extending level 4 from April 23 to April 27 is more than "two more business days" for many, as she suggested, but the Government had been clear from the start that the strictest level of lockdown was for a minimum of four weeks.
Small Business Minister Stuart Nash has reiterated that level 3 is not an opening up of the economy to a pre-Covid-19 level, it's a "waiting room" to see whether the Government has got the health measures right. Substantively, the slight easing of restrictions isn't about economic recovery so much as testing whether we really have flattened the curve.
Recovery measures will come, the Government has broadly hinted, as the country moves further down alert levels.
Globally, markets have been responding to such assistance - enacted or indicated - with positivity as more countries tentatively ease business shutdowns and restrictions put in place to slow the spread of the virus.
Analysts believe a significant part of the optimism is due to the expectation among investors that the economy will rebound sharply once quarantines are lifted. Once again, shapes are a handy metaphor. They're essentially predicting that a line chart of the economy will resemble the letter "V", with a wild ride down but then a quick pivot to a vigorous recovery.
That may be too optimistic. Strategists at Barclays warned in a recent report: "We caution that a U-shaped recovery is also quite likely", where the economy bottoms out and stays at a low level before gradual recovery.
Health experts warn the pandemic is far from over and new flareups could ignite if governments rush to allow "normal" life to return prematurely. This is also the case in New Zealand. There are still active cases that need to be carefully managed through to recovery. One imprudent step could bring catastrophic consequences.
Whether our situation is a peach or pear-shaped remains in five million pairs of hands. Only after we have been at Level 3 for more than two weeks will we know what shape, healthwise, we really are in.
