If proof was ever needed that forecast growth in Auckland's population will present challenges well beyond transport infrastructure and housing density, it is to be found in the pressure on school rolls.
Demand has resulted in some schools nearly doubling their number of pupils in the past decade, and the Ministry of Education and school boards of trustees face serious headaches in planning for a further surge over the next 30 years. Around 107,000 more school-age children are expected to join rolls in that period.
A Herald analysis of roll information for 565 schools in Greater Auckland emphasises the extent of the problem. Schools may end up having to lease commercial office space in the central business district, converting from intermediate-only to full primaries, and building on substantial parts of their existing fields.
As officials seek answers, parts of Auckland already have schools at bursting point. Multi-storey classroom blocks taking less playground space are increasingly being deployed and new land has been purchased by the Government to house new schools. However, the land available is limited. Reaction from surrounding communities has halted at least one new school, and the creation of new institutions is costly.
Solving the existing problem in, for example, the Western Bays area around Westmere and Pt Chevalier has been handed in the first instance to the school boards and principals in that district. If they can come up with sensible changes to enrolment zones, land use, and the years of schooling offered, officials hope to extend the model elsewhere.