Chris Hipkins has lost several key members of his Cabinet since taking over as Prime Minister.
Chris Hipkins has lost several key members of his Cabinet since taking over as Prime Minister.
EDITORIAL
Just 15 weeks from election day, the Government is trapped in a cycle of one step forward, two or three steps back.
If Labour loses power in October it may in part have its own internal issues to blame.
On a trip to China this week meant to advanceNew Zealand’s interests, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has been shadowed by questions about two ministers, Kiri Allan and Jan Tinetti.
That domestic disruption felt almost inevitable. They join a rollcall of others to have become caught up in news about themselves, at the politically worst possible time - even if the events involved date mostly took place before Hipkins took over.
For every positive piece of news for the Government, bad missteps seem to follow. Because this damage is part of a pattern, it accumulates. It reinforces perceptions that this Government is limping to the finish line.
As political scientist Bryce Edwards of Victoria University said, “It does feel, for a lot of people, that the wheels are falling off this Government”.
The most recent polls haven’t as yet shown a voter backlash. Overall, the party this year has done better than many people may have expected. Labour has been competitive in opinion polls even after the worst of the pandemic, the economic fallout of Covid and the Ukraine war, a change of leader, and the extreme weather disasters.
At Labour’s party conference in May, Hipkins focused on the Government’s economic stewardship and support for people in areas from transport costs to early childhood education and apprenticeships. There have been trade advances with Britain and the European Union and progress on immigration issues with Australia.
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins during Labour Party Congress at Te Papa on May 27, 2023 in Wellington, Photo / Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images
Labour shows some resilience with voters, has the advantage of being in power, and is a known quantity in what it brings as a government. Those factors, and caution in some sections of the electorate about what would replace it, have kept the election race at a stalemate.
Yet, the exposed self-inflicted wounds at Cabinet level seem to betray tiredness and insufficient hunger to win. The Government has opted for economic caution this year but it could do with more signs of sharpness and ambition.
It doesn’t come across as a motivated group that wants to push on with enough internal discipline to ensure it gets the best chance of another term. This current run of party problems recalls the messiness of Labour’s post-Helen Clark period.
Labour should be ripping into National leader Christopher Luxon’s habit of painting broad strokes of what his party would do as soon as any issue pops up - seemingly without thinking-through consequences and costings.
The instant solution of Luxon wanting to use commercial or charter flights over the China trip, which involved dozens of people, instead of defence planes was an example.
National leader Christopher Luxon during a media standup atr Parliament, Wellington on June 27, 2023. Photo / Mark Mitchell
It raised more questions than it answered, such as: what would be the actual differences in cost for three years’ typical travel? Would there be a limit in future on how many people could go? What would happen if an incident or disaster overseas meant planned commercial flights were cancelled? Since he directly raised maintenance costs for the defence planes in comparison to charter costs, what would be used to transport troops and supplies if the current planes were cut?
Such tactics, aimed at striking a sentiment that connects with voters while they are paying attention, can be effective here and overseas. It’s also an attempt to come across as decisive. But the background details of policies matter. An apparently “simple solution” can become bogged down in reality.
For example, the Conservative government in Britain has a plan - under a simple “stop the boats” slogan - to deport asylum-seeking migrants from the UK to Rwanda as a deterrent to people trying to cross the English Channel. A government analysis found that it would cost NZ$353,200 just to send a single person to Rwanda - that’s $130,000 more than to keep the migrant in the UK. An appeals court on Thursday ruled it was unlawful and that Rwanda is not a safe option.
For all of National’s vulnerabilities, the real prospect of swapping its Opposition benches for the government ones is keeping the party focused.
It’s making a reasonable impression with voters as a party with a number of released policies now. Its spokespeople may be untested as ministers but they’ve become familiar. It’s doing enough to be an alternative option.
Labour, for its part, needs to staunch the bleeding and take its challenge seriously.
