Editorial: Is Labour sinking deeper into an election quagmire?

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Police Minister Chris Hipkins address media after visiting a grieving Sandringham community. At left is Maungakiekie MP Priyanca Radhakrishnan.

Opinion

The past week may go down as a pivotal one in New Zealand’s politics, highlighting a wave of problems threatening to eventually swamp the governing party.

For Labour, the problem is the skies look dark for the foreseeable future.

With the election due next year, it faces entrenched issues that are very real for voters and which are delivering emotional blows to people around the country.

The country’s economic outlook in 2023 will be dominated by a fight over inflation that will push interest rates up as a majority of property owners have to refix mortgages - even as their house values fall.

This pathway is also forecast to almost double unemployment from 3.3 per cent to 5.7 per cent as the cost of living squeeze continues and people look to cut expenses.

The Reserve Bank governor’s statements with the increase in the Official Cash Rate last week made this trajectory clearer.

That was followed by the horrific fatal stabbing after a dairy robbery in Sandringham, bringing the issue of law and order to the forefront in the most distressing way possible.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has had to show renewed urgency on extra steps to prevent any more such tragedies in the future.

New Zealand doesn’t want to lose the generational habit of dropping into the local corner dairy or superette in an easy-going, threat-free atmosphere.

But if there are ways to further enhance security and deterrence to make working in suburban stores safer, then authorities have make it easier for owners to access that help, whether that means more bollards, extra camera surveillance or other devices.

Even this far out from the election, a heap of financial stress and other fears in the electorate seems likely to produce a significant enough protest vote to endanger the Government next year in what is a tight contest now.

It doesn’t help that things are not looking great elsewhere. The European Commission, for instance, said this month that most European Union countries are heading into recession. That will flow through to other regions.

In this situation, the opposition has an easier job of reflecting disgruntlement and dismay among voters and it is able to promise that all would be better if it were in charge.

Yet it’s still an open question whether National - out of power for five years and with an untested-in-government top leadership team - would manage this collection of crises any better.

Although financially stormy periods cause emotional strain, and could worsen the troubling incidents of crime against small businesses, voting always needs to be carefully thought through regardless of frustrations.

In the lead-up to the election, politicians of all parties will need to be pressed for specifics on what they would do, what ideas they would try that haven’t been tried. How exactly would a proposed policy or initiative bring practical benefits?

Voters at campaign events shouldn’t allow themselves to be fobbed off with generalities, soundbites and “we understand how difficult it is” political convenience.

Voters will respond to common-sense attempts to help people out. People need as much information as possible to inform their choices.