Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders speaks at a campaign event in Iowa City, Iowa. Photo / AP
Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders speaks at a campaign event in Iowa City, Iowa. Photo / AP
EDITORIAL
The phony war appears to be finally over with today's Iowa caucuses kicking off the Democratic contest to find an election opponent for US President Donald Trump.
Yet with the primary marathon now getting to the business end, Democratic Party infighting is spilling over into plain sight. There areseveral reasons for why.
Firstly, the race is tight. it increasingly looks like a two-candidate square-off between former Vice-President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. Senator Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar are at their heels. Mike Bloomberg, Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang are in the mix.
Democratic presidential candidate and former US vice-president Joe Biden during a campaign event in Dubuque, Iowa. Photo / AP
Secondly, the stakes are high. Democrats are desperate to beat Trump. Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two presidential contests of election year, historically have major clout when it comes to picking the nominee. The last four winners of Iowa's Democratic caucuses have gone on to the general election. Together, the two contests can make or break campaigns. They can gift a candidate momentum and donations by bestowing the sheen of a winner.
And thirdly, past wounds are still fresh. The Sanders-Biden standoff is a remake of the senator's 2016 fight with Hillary Clinton. It's progressive versus moderate, outsider versus party establishment, ideology versus pragmatism.
Democratic presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar speaks at a campaign event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Photo / AP
On Sunday, Biden, Warren and Sanders made calls for unity after several days of reports suggesting that party leaders were nervous at Sanders' rise. Clinton had also attacked Sanders for not doing enough to bring Democrats together after their primary. Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib booed when Clinton was mentioned at a Sanders event in Iowa.
An Emerson College poll which asked voters whether they would support the Democratic nominee should their candidate fail, highlighted the non-traditional, beyond party structure, nature of Sanders' support. Whereas backers of Buttigieg, Biden and Warren said "yes" at rates of 86 to 90 per cent; for Sanders' voters it was 53 per cent "yes", 16 per cent "no" and 31 per cent "depends".
The fact that the election contest starts in two overwhelmingly white states is a scheduling twist that puts Biden on the backfoot and suits his rivals. Biden, who polls show has an advantage among non-white voters, needs two respectable results before the race moves to more friendly territory. In contrast, his rivals want to get off to a flier.
Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg (right) with his husband Chasten Buttigieg (left), meet members of the audience. Photo / AP
In a splintered field, a candidate who manages a close, top-three place initially can hope for better things. More diverse Nevada and South Carolina will also hold contests this month, followed by Super Tuesday in March.
But while Biden heads Sanders in national polls and in Nevada and South Carolina, the senator is ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, according to RealClearPolitics poll averages. Sanders also has a slight lead over Biden in betting odds.
Biden's lack of crushing poll dominance and weakness relative to Sanders in fundraising are clear vulnerabilities. He's not the "inevitable" favourite that Clinton was.
Iowa may start to provide some long-awaited answers about where this race is headed.
