Screenshot of a GNS model of an 8.9 magnitude Hikurangi earthquake. Source: GNS
Screenshot of a GNS model of an 8.9 magnitude Hikurangi earthquake. Source: GNS
Opinion
OPINION
News of earthquakes in New Zealand are far from rare. We have a whole site dedicated to the details of every jolt and a popular #eqnz hashtag every time the tectonic plates shift under our feet.
Looking at how recurring these events are, you don’t need to bean expert seismologist or even an accomplished statistician to know that, one day in our future or our children’s future, the ground will shake a little bit too hard again.
That included a focus on our largest fault – the Hikurangi Subduction Zone. During a session on catastrophic risk, the National Emergency Management Agency (Nema) detailed its work over the past 18 months, using a 9.1 Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami as its “planning scenario” for the “worst of the worst”.
The general location of the offshore part of the Hikurangi subduction zone.
The numbers were nothing short of catastrophic: If that earthquake were to hit, and assuming 70 per cent of people were able to evacuate, more than 22,000 would likely die – mostly in the tsunami – and nearly 26,000 more would be injured.
About 400,000 people would be displaced and 30,000 homes destroyed or damaged from the tsunami alone.
Speaking to The Front Page podcast, GNS Science seismologist Bill Fry, who was part of the panel, said the goal is not to spark panic, but to ensure that we plan and test systems so that we limit damage if something like this was to happen.
He said that looking at 20 years of seismic activity in New Zealand, the country “always has the potential for a big earthquake and tsunami” that we must be prepared for.
“There’s never going to be a situation where we go through time we say, ‘okay, all the earthquakes are done, I’m finished with that, move on to something else’. And it’s this realisation that leads us to do things like testing the response systems or to even develop new tools to help us respond, things like tsunami early warning, being able to to look at waves, monitor tsunami waves before they arrive to our shores,” he told reporter Chelsea Daniels on the podcast.
Of course it is not healthy or realistic to live in constant fear of an impending disaster - but recognising that this can happen within our lifetime doesn’t need to involve high levels of stress but, rather, high levels of preparedness. It’s not about panic, but about the very real possibility that a disaster could happen and we can - and should - do whatever we can to prepare for it.
On an individual level, with the cost of living skyrocketing, many of us worry about putting food on the table so the budget doesn’t stretch far enough to include spare batteries and all the other things that should be in our earthquake preparedness kit.
On a nationwide, governmental level, we must ensure our systems are ready to cope with a disaster.
The information that the top science minds of our country are collecting and giving us should inform every decision, particularly when it comes to our infrastructure, building codes, and urban planning, to give New Zealand the resilience it needs for the future and the best possible chance to cope with a proper jolt whenever the “shaky isles” live up to their name.
