The Prime Minister would have been glad to be in Melbourne at the weekend. The World Cup final was bound to be more fun, whatever happened, than the result of the Northland byelection. The polls were close to the mark; John Key has suffered his first setback in more than six years of office. If National goes down to defeat in 2017, pundits might look back to this byelection as the turning of the tide. But whether any of that happens depends on what the Government does next.
When the National Party reviews Saturday's defeat in Northland, it will rue above all its ridiculous announcement of one-way bridge replacements. This sort of blatant electoral offering may work in other democracies, but New Zealanders expect orderly government in which spending on vital infrastructure is properly prioritised, preferably at a safe distance from political interests.
It is very good for the country that Mr Key's Government has learned that lesson at this stage. If, indeed, its support is on the wane in a third term, it now knows it has nothing to gain by pouring public money on political deserters. Its success at the next election will depend, as always, on the strength of the economy at that time, which requires fiscal restraint and debt reduction in the meantime.
The second item on National's review is the message of "neglect" that supposedly has been sent from Northland. It needs to consider whether this is a message of real resentment or just a clever slogan promoted by Winston Peters and taken up by voters attracted to him for other reasons. Those who voted Labour or Green in Northland last year lent him their votes on Saturday, but he appears to have picked up about 4000 of last year's National voters too. If there is a genuine sense of neglect in the north, the Government needs to ask is it confined to that region or is it to be found in the provinces generally?
It is hard to believe that regions such as Hawkes Bay, Taranaki and Bay of Plenty feel they are missing out on the growth in the economy in recent years. Their horticulture and pasture look prosperous and though milk prices are down this season, there are no signs farmers are reversing their dairy investments. It may be that the urban house-price boom, most pronounced in Auckland and Christchurch, is causing resentment in places that are not sharing it and feel they are suffering from its effect on the exchange rate faced by agricultural exports.
