Editorial: From wet to dry, New Zealand’s next weather challenges

Firefighters spray water inside a woodland during a wildlife in the suburb of Stamata, in northern Athens, Greece, last week. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL:

New Zealand’s unusual summer weather earlier this year has proved to be an unfortunate sign of the times.

The fierce storms and cyclone in January and February produced traumatic images of water surging through city streets.

It was a shock for many in Auckland to experience the particularly intense downpours of anniversary weekend, even after years of the rainy and humid La Nina climate pattern and marine heatwaves.

In the Northern Hemisphere, such pictures have been replicated repeatedly as heavy rains have lashed cities in a record-setting hot summer and early autumn. But some areas have conversely experienced drier-than-average conditions.

In the past week there have been floods in Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria caused by an Omega weather system involving a high-pressure zone between two lows. Britain and Ireland have been unusually hot.

Earlier in the summer flash floods struck across central Europe, including in Germany, Austria and Croatia, as well as wildfires in the west and Mediterranean regions.

These disasters were particularly rampant in July throughout the Northern Hemisphere, including in parts of Asia such as China and South Korea. Copernicus Climate Change Service scientists said last week it was the warmest June to August period since records began in 1940.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called it “a season of simmering” for the planet and that “climate breakdown has begun”.

The northern weather has been influenced in part by a building El Nino climate driver as well as smaller weather systems and underlying climate change.

Now it’s New Zealand and Australia’s turn to prepare for an expected El Nino pattern later in the year, which brings hotter, drier weather. It would be New Zealand’s first since 2016 and is likely to be particularly strong.

Niwa says the country could get a taster of warmer weather in the next few weeks.

“Using the data from August, this El Nino is in with the five strongest that have occurred in the last eight decades,” Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said.

That could have various impacts - including economically costly ones. The summer generally is likely to bring higher fire danger and risk of drought. Hawke’s Bay could get the dry extremes after the wet ones of Cyclone Gabrielle.

As Fire and Emergency New Zealand wildfire manager Tim Mitchell put it: “Given this year’s flood events and wet conditions, people will likely find it difficult to understand the wildfire risk New Zealand could be facing soon”.

There would be “warmer, drier and windier conditions, particularly in the eastern areas of both islands and into Auckland and Northland, and that’s really going to drive up the fire danger in those areas”.

The previously wet conditions will have helped a build-up of vegetation, creating fuel loads.

Fenz says people can help by keeping grass short, and moving flammable material away from homes in rural and semi-rural areas. They should also clear gutters and accessways, and work out an emergency plan.

Visitors on reserves, park or conservation land need to know when it’s safe to light fires.

The warnings are coming earlier this year and it’s up to people to heed them earlier too.