Editorial: Flawed choices and a fractured, undecided electorate

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Opposition leader Christopher Luxon. Image / Rod Emmerson

A starter’s gun has been fired.

This week it feels as though the phony war has ended and the election proper has begun with the finish line of October 14 still distant but now visible.

In part this is timing with just over 10 weeks to go until advance voting begins on October 2 and two overseas trips out of the way for Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Parliament is also back from recess.

Labour’s leader this week has looked more engaged in the battle and is finally releasing some policy, perhaps with a sense of urgency after the party’s bad run of self-inflicted wounds.

The average of the past five polls is centre right (46.5 per cent) and centre-left (45.7 per cent). While different parties have seen slight jumps and slumps, the polls have been consistent. It’s all to play for in a classic fractured MMP election.

National will at least be satisfied that it has embedded its election themes and laid out a policy platform in recent months. It can build more detail on that foundation as October nears and it may come under more pressure to do so.

There have been encouraging signs for the party that in the Ipsos Issues Monitor it is considered strongest on issues of priority to voters: inflation and cost of living; crime; and housing. National and Act also have a huge advantage in political donations.

Labour has a few advantages of its own, chief of which is incumbency. The Government and its leader are familiar, the Opposition has to prove its team would be better and should replace it.

From polling it doesn’t appear enough people are convinced of that. More policy, campaign events, and the debates may sway some undecided voters.

Hipkins has just been through a poll dip in his personal approval rating, but as yet there’s no reason to think he can’t improve it, especially with the chance to be on the front foot with a policy rollout and campaign appearances.

He needs to boost Labour supporters’ morale to ensure enthusiasm and a high turnout after a section were turned off after he ruled out a capital gains or wealth tax. That still leaves room to spring a tax tweak that might be surprising rather than alarming to the centrist voters the party wants to keep.

Hipkins’ first policy statements on youth crime came with a stumble on one part of it and he seemed to be trying to stick closer than previously to the opposition in tone.

It still landed differently from National and Act’s approach, being more detailed and wider in scope, rather than heavily focused on punishment.

The policy rollout gives him a chance to show whether the Government has new ideas and to provide such comparisons with National, which has a different strategy.

National’s own policy announcements, such as on potholes and allowing KiwiSaver funds to be used for rental bonds, are about transmitting a central high-impact idea. They don’t always hold up well to analysis.

For instance, the whole purpose of KiwiSaver is to grow future funds away from regular bank accounts and avoid dipping into them. What if the bond wasn’t returned? Just temporarily removing that KiwiSaver sum for a period means a person will have lost some money long term.

Voters are mostly struggling with flawed party choices, hoping for some improvement in their daily lives, and some solutions to the obvious problems around us.