Editorial: Fires, floods and humid nights - NZ's long hot summer

Towering plumes of smoke from the fire in Northland. Photo / Lisa Everitt

As Kiwis spread out around the country over summer, the massive Northland fire is a reminder of the seasonal summer hazards out there alongside the pandemic health one.

The scrub fire is sprawled over 2000 hectares in the Far North near the village of Kaimaumau and is the target="_blank">biggest blaze to hit the region in over a decade.

Firefighters, bulldozers, and helicopters with monsoon buckets, have been tackling the blaze, mainly in an 11km-long Department of Conservation wetland reserve. Smoke from fire has blown more than 100km.

Around the country, summer has appeared to hit early this year, with stuffy nights and boiling days.

A marine heatwave in November had pushed the surface temperatures of coastal waters 1.1 to 1.5C above average.

A Niwa weather outlook at the start of December forecast a 70 per cent chance of higher than usual temperatures around the country.

The research institute said La Niña - a naturally occurring pattern - was the climate lever this summer and would set the tone into January and February.

Warm weather is good news for New Zealanders wanting to de-stress at the beach after a tough year. But there's darker shadow behind it.

New Zealand summers have been getting hotter as the sprouting of cooling units around people's homes in recent years testifies. Just a decade or so ago, December was often unreliable as a summer month of fine, warm days.

Last year was the country's seventh hottest year on record, with Niwa data reaching to the early 1900s.

Niwa's principal scientist, Chris Brandolino, said back in January that "six of the eight warmest years on records have occurred since 2013 – this is consistent with climate change".

He said that climate change was making natural warming patterns more severe, and wilder weather such as deluges, droughts and hotter temperatures worse.

Underlining that, the MetService on Monday night warned of gales and heavy winds for Wellington and the South Island. Manawatu residents are still dealing with mud on flood-damaged properties after a downpour last week. Public access to some roads in Marlborough are only just being restored more than six months after storms damaged them.

This year's winter was the warmest, with temperatures across the country 1.3C warmer than average. That followed a 2020 winter which was 1.1C above average.

Further afield, the most alarming recent climate-related news in the region occurred this month when scientists reported that a key ice shelf in Antarctica was being eroded.

Closer to home, the Pacific cyclone season has started, and a Niwa assessment in October predicted "the risk for an ex-tropical cyclone affecting New Zealand is considered above normal".

In the wider southwest Pacific basin, an above normal range of between nine and 12 named cyclones were forecast between November and April.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby made landfall in New Caledonia and brought heavy rain and lashing winds to New Zealand earlier this month via low pressure zones connected to the storm.

The upcoming year is set to bring action and reaction over climate change to the fore. It will be a priority in the next Budget and the Government will reveal its Emissions Reduction Plan.

So while Kiwis will make the most of the summer heat, there's plenty to suggest that the impacts of climate change are inserting themselves more into our lives.