Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon are fighting for the middle ground of voters five months out from the election. Photo montage / Mark Mitchell
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon are fighting for the middle ground of voters five months out from the election. Photo montage / Mark Mitchell
Editorial
Well, well, we really are a moderate and mild bunch, aren’t we?
A new “poll of polls” from the Herald this week found New Zealand has resolutely pitched camp in the middle ground on political preferences.
The tool runs a simulation based on polling data from multiple public pollsand previous election results to get a feel for what might happen on election night. Running that simulation multiple times gives people a sense of how likely various outcomes might be.
The Herald used the tool to run 3000 simulations of possible outcomes were the election to be held yesterday.
The culmination of the simulations demonstrated a near dead heat between the two major parties National and Labour. The bulk of New Zealand voters are sitting evenly poised on the centre fenceline.
But the foibles of our Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system means a government could still be formed a majority of the time by bringing Te Pāti Māori into a coalition agreement.
Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. Photo / Mark Mitchell
It found that 75.1 per cent of the time, Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori got over the crucial 61-seat threshold required to form a government.
National, Act, and Te Pāti Māori were also likely to cross the 61-seat threshold, getting there 74.2 per cent of the time. While this makes this outcome somewhat likely by the numbers, it is highly unlikely politically.
During a question-and-answer session at a Morrinsville dairy farm on April 11, National Party leader Christopher Luxon was asked whether he would be able to win the election by working with the Māori Party. “The short answer is no,” he replied.
A spokesperson for Luxon later clarified the leader hadn’t intended to fully rule out working with Te Pāti Māori but wanted to make it clear that forming a coalition was “highly unlikely”.
What is clear is the party machine understands the potential need for Te Pāti Māori, even in a support role on a confidence and supply basis. By the polling, that appears to be the case - no matter how much Luxon wishes it wasn’t so.
Luxon himself remains a much unfavoured prime minister, hitting a new low of 23 per cent in last month’s Talbot Mills poll. His lack of resonance with voters is a worrying sign that his party’s support is, in no small part, coming from a “not-Labour” sentiment, rather than a genuine preference for his party.
Meanwhile, Labour leader and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has to somehow maintain voter confidence while grappling with demands for cost-of-living support; to increase public sector wages; and drive the cyclone recovery.
Hipkins is adamant the Government won’t introduce a capital gains tax, a wealth tax or a cyclone levy in the upcoming “no-frills” Budget.
Hipkins’ popularity continues to climb, hitting 39 per cent, up four points on the last Talbot Mills poll, but how long can that continue while the cost of living continues to head south in the run-up to an election?
Herald political editor Claire Trevett spoke with both party campaign strategists this week and found expectations high for a “doozy” of an MMP drag race to the line. Both parties believe the result could swing on about 30 per cent of voters who are “middle” New Zealanders, hardworking but just making ends meet.
The cost of living, then, will be uppermost in their minds and where Hipkins can exploit his popularity and get Labour over the line, or lose the room as frustration rises.
It was about this time before the 2020 election that National succumbed to a case of the yips around leadership. On May 22, 2020 after repeatedly poor poll results, Todd Muller replaced Simon Bridges as leader and Leader of the Opposition, and Nikki Kaye replaced Paula Bennett as deputy leader of the party.
Muller lasted less than two months before standing down, citing health reasons, leading to the promotion of Judith Collins to head the party into the election.
National will not want a repeat episode of the one that handed New Zealand its first single-party majority government in MMP history.
There are 167 days until the election. Luxon needs to find out where his mojo is if he is to have enough time to get it working.
Either that or discover something to love about Te Pāti Māori.
