New Zealand's
chief electoral officer Alicia Wright told Mediaworks early voting had been been going like "gangbusters". "We thought we would have a target of around 60 per cent advance voting through that time period. I suspect we will easily beat that."
Last night's 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll put undecideds at 14 per cent, although how many have made up their minds since answering and gone to polling booths is impossible to know.
If it feels like this election has dragged on, that's because it has. When Jacinda Ardern postponed "election day" from September 19 to October 17 due to community transmission of Covid-19 in Auckland, it was supposed to defer electioneering. In reality, many of the hoardings were already up and the first vote-for-me fliers were in the post.
This may explain some of the extraordinary early turnout. Anecdotally, people have been saying they were "over" the election and just want to "get it done". There have also been fears expressed of another Covid outbreak, with restrictions making it difficult to access booths.
If there was one thing the Bolger years taught us, it's to take the polls with a grain of salt. Surprises are inevitable. Many National supporters are still stunned by the coalition decision made by Winston Peters in 2017 - handing Labour the keys to the Cabinet Room on the 10th floor of the Beehive.
Even with the "hard and fast" voting turnout, time will still be needed before we can digest some of the outcomes. Preliminary results from the referenda, for example, aren't due until October 30 and there is no set date for the formation of the next government.
The official results of the general election are scheduled to be declared on November 6. The last day for the Return of the Writ, effectively certifying election and proving the right of membership to the House of Representatives, is November 12.
Though some timelines are still open-ended, what is known is the challenge facing the next government.
Based on Budget projections, the Crown will borrow an extra $100 billion in the next three years to cover Covid-19 costs. A new top tax rate of 39 per cent on income above $180,000 might raise $550m a year, but it would take more than 180 years to pay off the new debt with this new revenue.
The Tax Working Group last year estimated a capital gains tax could raise more than $8b across the first five years. For now, that is off the table with Ardern ruling out any capital gains tax while she was in power. National finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith has been very clear he'd endorse only a plan with taxes as low as they are today or lower.
Polling booths close at 7pm, Saturday, October 17.
