Editorial: Early data on Omicron suggests rethink of border-easing plans warranted

Britain is now offering all adults a booster dose of vaccine to bolster the nation's immunity as the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus spreads. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL

Early data on the new Covid-19 variant suggests that New Zealand's border opening plans for the first quarter of 2022 may need a rethink.

Omicron case numbers are increasing, with experts saying waves of infection are likely to unfold around the world.

Scientists are still waiting for target="_blank">clear results on what threat it poses. But outbreaks in South Africa and the UK are providing some pointers.

In summary, analysts so far say that it's likely people with a recent vaccination or booster shot should still have good protection against hospitalisation and death from this variant as they do for Delta.

Some say there's a chance it could be more mild than Delta but people affected so far have tended to be young and would be more likely to have mild cases.

Harvard University associate health professor Bill Hanage pointed out that Omicron's spread worldwide had been fast. "Transmissible means it all happens rapidly. So the severe cases clog healthcare ... while the milder ones are off work and supply chains stutter," he tweeted.

"Everything I know leads me to think vaxxed and boosted folks are in the best place to ride this out. And other stuff like masks will help control spikes. But I would be lying if I didn't say I was seriously worried."

Virus research scientist Trevor Bedford says the early data suggests Omicron is fitter than Delta was at the same stage and "this indicates a much larger threat in terms of case counts than Delta. I'm hoping that prior immunity protects against severe outcomes, but I'm very concerned about the size of the epidemic wave ... across the world".

New Zealand microbiologist Dr Siouxsie Wiles said what we find out about the variant "may well have implications for our borders".

She added: "We'd be fools not to pay attention to the data. The data is what has served us well so far. We would be idiots not to see what it says before moving into the next phase of our response."

New Zealand authorities should be prepared to adjust plans if needed, and to get programmes for booster shots and children's doses done before border easing.

Experts say that the mRNA Pfizer/BioNTech shot is proving to be a three-dose vaccine, rather than two. At least New Zealand's booster rollout is under way and there's simple advice to get one six months after the second dose. Some countries have done theirs by age brackets.

There is a vague timetable here of vaccinations for children starting in late January. Immunology professor Graham Le Gros said a rollout then was "not soon enough when we've got a virus knocking on our door". Improving air quality in schools is being worked on over the holidays.

In Australia, the shots for 5 to 11-year-olds have now been medically approved and are expected to start in mid-January, meaning more than two million children could have their first jab by the time school restarts next year. Pfizer expects to soon have research on vaccines for children under-5.

The UK is launching a pilot trial of an antiviral pill to protect vulnerable people.

The first date in New Zealand's border plan is January 17, when fully vaccinated New Zealand citizens can return from Australia, and then isolate at home. Added precautions, such as requiring a week's self-isolation and tests before flying home, could be an alternative to a delay.

But the next weeks will be a nervous time as the world finds out what it is dealing with.