Te Tai Tokerau Principals Association president Pat Newman told RNZ he had surveyed members and all who responded said they were missing significant numbers of children.
"At my own school, many of them ... we don't even know where they are, they're not in school, they're not in any school and that is a pattern that is in every school in Te Tai Tokerau and also I think wider than that," he said.
Other principal groups point strongly to absences being a nationwide issue. Fear of catching Covid and the pernicious spread of misinformation around the virus and vaccines have contributed strongly. Newman says: "People didn't want their kids here in case they caught Covid, others didn't want them at school in case we ran around with needles and injected them with the vaccination. We have many parents with every conspiracy theory you could possibly have."
The situation is not only disastrous for children's education, it is potentially damaging long-term to schools.
Schools are funded for the numbers confirmed on rolls. A major decline in a school roll means less funding to pay for teachers. Should the children return, it will take time to confirm new numbers and restore teachers. This is further disruption to the teachers, the schools, and the students.
Additionally, many of the children who eventually return will need help to catch up on what they had missed.
Some of those absent have moved to home-schooling. As of April 30, 10,769 children had exemptions for home-schooling, with 845 applications pending a decision. The figure was about 40 per cent higher than the middle of last year.
With due respect to those who home-school their children well, not all will be capable of providing the best possible education. Social skills and community engagement are also important learnings.
At the beginning of this month, Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced a $88 million package to tackle school attendance issues, particularly due to Covid-19 impacts, with a focus on supporting initiatives that work for local communities to deal with engagement and attendance.
Any initiatives need compliance. Under the Education Act 1989, any parent whose child does not attend school is liable for a fine of up to $30 for every day the child is away, up to a maximum $300. A second conviction can mean a parent is fined $3000.
Youth crime is already a concern. All eyes need to be on education if we are to avert a tsunami of the disengaged.