Editorial: Covid-19 Have we reached peak pandemic with Omicron?

A postive result of rapid antigen test. Photo / Jakub Porzycki, NurPhoto via Getty Images

EDITORIAL

The end of this week shapes as a potential cresting point in the Omicron wave, but it will be unclear whether that actually is the case for several days afterwards.

Covid-19 daily community case numbers have been the most promising indicator in the past - but are now also the least reliable.

From 19,566 last Tuesday, new case numbers rose to 23,183 on Thursday before falling to 15,161 on Sunday and rising again to 23,894 yesterday.

But with Omicron, data accuracy is dependent on testing levels and reliant on people registering results with the Ministry of Health. Many cases are asymptomatic or mild, and the less reliable RATs are mainly being used rather than PCR tests. There have likely been delays for people self-reporting results to My Covid Record with testing levels reportedly dropping late last week.

The ministry noted on Sunday: "The variation in reporting numbers each day means that the rolling average of cases gives a more reliable indicator of testing trends. The seven-day rolling average of cases is today 17,272, up from 16,687 yesterday."

And over the same period from Tuesday to Monday, hospitalisations with Omicron rose from 373 on Tuesday, to 503 on Thursday and 696 on Monday. That's a jump of 323.

A fall in hospitalisations over this week or the next would be the first solid sign of progress.

On hospitalisations, the ministry said: "The number of cases in hospital is currently expected to peak in the second half of this month. The Omicron variant means people who are hospitalised are more likely to have a shorter stay and less likely to be admitted to ICU or require oxygen or ventilation support."

There are still many people able to get a booster shot who haven't. The ministry said that unvaccinated people were four times more likely to be in hospital. While only 3 per cent of people aged 12 and over are unvaccinated, they make up 13 per cent of people with Covid in hospital in Auckland and Northland.

The number of people in ICU has been fairly steady over the past week, ranging from seven to 13. So far 21 people, some with other health conditions, have died after testing positive since February 20. New Zealand's Covid-related death toll for the pandemic is 65.

New Zealand is not the only territory in the Asia-Pacific region to struggle with Omicron after doing well against Covid-19 for long periods of the pandemic.

Although confirmed Omicron cases are undercounts of real infections, the same data accuracy issue plagues other countries, so comparisons can still be relevant.

According to OurWorldInData.org, Hong Kong on Friday was scorching at a rate of 5845 daily new cases per million people on a seven-day rolling average. On the same day, South Korea was at 3846, New Zealand 3802 and Singapore 3237. Australia at its Omicron peak in January got to 4235.

Hong Kong is more of an outlier for Omicron deaths. In just over two weeks, its average per million death rate lurched from 0.23 to 20. That compares to South Korea (2.51), Singapore (2.12), Australia (1.50) and New Zealand (0.20).

Comparing Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore, US expert Dr Eric Topol noted that Hong Kong had lower levels of vaccinations and boosters than the other three, especially among the elderly, and had made significant use of the Sinovac vaccine.

All going well, New Zealand will reach its Omicron case and hospitalisation peaks soon with deaths kept to a minimum.