Editorial: Chris Hipkins chips away at late election opening

Labour leader Chris Hipkins (left) and National's Christopher Luxon during the Newshub Leaders' Debate. Photo / Newshub

EDITORIAL

Can what appears to be a predictable election outcome have a final twist in the tale?

After Chris Hipkins’ energised second debate performance on Wednesday night, the question is: will it translate to a late jolt in support for Labour?

Hipkins did what he had to do, which was to show defiance and raise questions about his main opponent, National leader Christopher Luxon.

It was a reminder of the more confident, sharper Hipkins the public knew before the weight of leading a sometimes self-destructive government in very hard times weighed him down.

Labour has been unable to regain momentum through campaigning and policy rollouts in recent weeks. The polls keep showing a downwards drift for the party.

A lot of voters appear keen to put this difficult period, associated with a pandemic and downturn that have bled into different areas of life, behind them.

The Greens and New Zealand First appear to be the beneficiaries of whatever volatility there still is in the electorate.

But fans of dramatic last-minute story surprises will have noticed that National has also been slipping in the polls and its preferred coalition partner Act has plateaued.

Hipkins can see an opportunity to chip away at creeping doubts about changing horses.

How well would a National, Act and NZ First combo function? Can the public buy National’s economic promises and tax plan as credible? Is Luxon too evasive and general on important matters? How hardline is it going to get for ordinary people with expected spending cuts? Could things worsen?

There’s enough there for Hipkins to open a hole of uncertainty - and widen it. But Labour is running out of time to achieve a shift. Widespread early voting in New Zealand begins on Monday, with election day on October 14.

Luxon’s debate performances have been solid enough to ease anxiety that he would be out of his depth as Prime Minister. He can present well and make persuasive points on issues he’s clearly briefed on. He didn’t cave under heavier scrutiny in the second debate than the first.

For all Hipkins’ successful jabs - “you called them bottom feeders” and “show us your numbers” - Luxon was able to articulate voter frustration with Labour in power during his reply on health staffing, that there still aren’t enough doctors and nurses.

What’s still unknown is how well Luxon would handle the details, the people, the events, the curveball crises as leader of the country. Reaching for “I don’t know him” when confronted with the prospect of dealing with Winston Peters doesn’t inspire confidence.

Elections focused on change require the new leader and incoming parties to satisfy the question of: “Is this broadly the change I want?” The polls show an electorate completely divided between the types of changes it wants.

Opposition parties benefit from voters’ hopes that a clear change of direction could be better.

Any boost Labour might receive may only make the contest tighter rather than get the party over the line. If the vote is close, the resulting government could be shackled and short-lived.