Editorial: Can change at the top boost Labour’s political fortunes?

Chris Hipkins speaks during a press conference at Parliament in Wellington on Saturday. Photo / Getty Images

The past few days have been an earthquake in New Zealand politics with the Prime Minister announcing her departure, her replacement being chosen, and an election date set for October 14.

As in a real earthquake, the tremor may also have allowed some of the underlying, built-up stress about the country’s politics to be released.

Immediate reactions to Jacinda Ardern’s decision to step back from power have been varied. The process of digesting what happened to the Prime Minister and the country during her time at the top is still ongoing. But some things have just become clearer about the year ahead.

The timing means incoming Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has about nine months to set his own tone, make changes, set a different course.

That’s a lengthy period of time for a new leader to make an impression before an election. The change may be happening far enough out to prompt some voter reassessment, but that’s a wait-and-see possibility.

With the steady, low-key Hipkins in charge, Labour will hope some of the drama that has infused New Zealand politics, particularly over the past two years, will lessen.

The country, like the rest of the world, has been through a tough period that is hard to move on from. Ardern, undoubtedly one of New Zealand’s most charismatic prime ministers, attracted high praise, legitimate scrutiny, but also what Hipkins called intolerable and unacceptable vitriol.

A difficulty for Labour is the party is losing the person who has consistently rated the most preferred prime minister in polls, even as the party’s popularity has decreased.

Ardern and Hipkins share an ability to project calm and caution, but while the Prime Minister had an unusual ability to inspire with rhetoric and example, her successor comes across as more of a bread-and-butter centrist. He said he wants to help give all New Zealanders the opportunities he had growing up and to leave the country “in better shape than what I found it in”.

That more conventional approach might suit these hard times better, and make Hipkins difficult for opponents to demolish as Labour pursues another term.

As the careers of politicians such as Joe Biden, Keir Starmer, and Angela Merkel suggest, lower-wattage but likeable leaders are less of a target than high-flyers whom people feel more passionately about.

Hipkins’ press conference on Saturday showed him both disciplined and relaxed, with a bit of humour. A more down-to-earth tone and pragmatic take on governing priorities could make for a tighter election than expected.

That doesn’t mean the political challenges of 2023 have gone away for Labour. There are plenty of them with the economy, costs, housing, crime and unpopular policies.

The upcoming election battle between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon shapes as primarily a contest about competence and experience.

An MP since 2008, and a senior minister with police and education portfolios, Hipkins is far ahead of Luxon on experience.

National will try to attack that experience, particularly Hipkins’ role as Covid-19 Response Minister during 2021. The party will likely push for a Covid inquiry report before the election.

Luxon said: “Chris Hipkins has been part of a government that has spectacularly failed to get anything done and what New Zealanders need is a National government that is going to get things done.”

Hipkins and Labour will see this as a chance for a restart while attempting to reconnect with middle New Zealand.