Editorial: Border delays amount to careful caution at unpredictable time

People walk past a billboard inviting citizens to wear face masks to curb the spread of Covid-19, in Nottingham, England. Photo / AP

The Covid-19 pandemic is still unpredictable but the Government's response to it is still predictably cautious and careful.

Most people would view the changes announced on Tuesday as sensible: shortening the time gap for booster shots; extending job jab mandates to third doses; delaying the start of the traveller self-isolation plan to the end of February; tweaking pre-departure tests and MIQ stays, and beginning the vaccination of children in mid-January.

There's a new coronavirus variant we still don't know enough about raging overseas and potentially about to overwhelm health services with sick people. Middle New Zealand would look at that situation and conclude there's no harm in pushing reopening plans back a few weeks.

Kiwis wanting to return from Australia or people here who planned to travel as soon as possible in mid February will be annoyed by the delay. The border was set to reopen to NZ citizens from Australia from January 17, then from the rest of the world, and then to other vaccinated people at the end of April.

Air New Zealand had to cancel 120 flights after the border changes were announced. The moves were criticised by tourism and airline representatives. In the medium and longer-term, overseas Kiwis wanting to come home and people here wanting to travel need to be confident rules won't suddenly change on them, in order to plan and put their money down.

However, it's hard to argue with trying to deliver booster shots and paediatric doses for 5- to 11-year-olds before the Omicron variant gets into the community. As it is, New Zealand faces a challenge winning that race with Omicron cases in MIQ. National expressed support for these moves after the changes were announced.

Some experts are arguing for an additional measure of limiting or halting arrivals from countries with high rates of Omicron.

Most people here will feel reassured by the focus on public health and the fact that the booster programme is being accelerated. New Zealand will also be able to see exactly how Omicron operates in other countries in the next two months. Australian states want the booster programme there given impetus amid surging Omicron cases.

Booster shots are necessary whether the dominant variant is Delta or Omicron since there is a gradual waning of immunity with Delta after the second dose. With Omicron the booster becomes more essential as studies suggest the variant shaves some of the vaccines' effectiveness.

The pace of Omicron's spread is simply remarkable. It has very quickly begun to dominate in the United States, accounting for 73 per cent of new cases, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention estimates. Leading US epidemiologist Dr Michael Osterholm believes the Omicron surge there will last three to eight weeks nationwide.

There are promising signs from South Africa where the Omicron surge appears to be falling, but more data from elsewhere is needed.

US scientist and virus expert Trevor Bedford says a booster shot is good immediate protection but sees an urgent need for trials into an Omicron-specific vaccine.

"Due to seasonality, waning immunity and further evolution of Delta and Omicron, we will very likely face a Sars-CoV-2 wave in [the northern] winter 2022-2023," he tweeted.

"Come [next] September it's very possible we'll have descendants of Omicron, Delta or both circulating. mRNA vaccines in particular have the potential to be rapidly updated to respond to viral evolution. We're going to be dealing with an evolving Sars-CoV-2 for the foreseeable future."

The cycle of a target being set only to shift again is a frustrating one. People and officials have to be cautious where necessary and get through it with the aid of medical science.