German Chancellor Olaf Scholz with German Army Bundeswehr soldiers next to a Leopard 2 battle tank in Ostenholz, Germany. Photo / AP file
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz with German Army Bundeswehr soldiers next to a Leopard 2 battle tank in Ostenholz, Germany. Photo / AP file
EDITORIAL
The war in Ukraine has dealt a severe blow to one Kiwi family, with the parents of volunteer Andrew Bagshaw speaking proudly through their grief about his efforts to help people on the other side of the world.
Bagshaw, 47, was killed while trying to evacuate and assist civiliansin dangerous areas of fighting.
His parents, doctors Phil and Sue Bagshaw, hoped his death would not be in vain.
About the war, they said the outside world needed to help the Ukrainians to “rid their homeland of an aggressor”. “The world needs to be strong and stand with Ukraine, giving them the military support, they need now and, help to rebuild their shattered country after the war.”
Western countries do keep showing that they understand the stakes at play, that they can’t let an aggressive Russia keep the parts of Ukraine it has gained over the past year.
A humiliated Russia, forced to pull back to pre-war territory in a peace deal, would likely be difficult enough for the West to handle. Moscow could turn to methods such as sabotage operations and cyber attacks to gain revenge.
This week marked a key moment in the war, in which it was made clear that Ukraine would be supplied with important weapons in the coming months.
A Leopard 2 tank during a demonstration by the German Bundeswehr in Munster near Hannover, Germany, in 2011. Photo / Michael Sohn, AP, File
The most hopeful outcome would be that Moscow becomes convinced that Ukraine’s suppliers are in it for the long haul and that the conflict is futile. But it might take more territory gains by Kyiv for Russia to seek an exit. Neither side is at present near to wanting peace talks to end it.
Both the United States and Germany, after a wobbly few days of talks and mixed messages, agreed to send 31 M1 Abrams and 14 Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine in significant reversals. Germany will also allow several other countries to send their Leopards and Britain is sending 14 Challenger 2s. Infantry fighting vehicles had previously been pledged.
There’s a major problem: It will still take an estimated two months for the weaponry to make a practical difference on the battlefield because of delivery and training for Ukrainians to operate the tanks. The US M1 Abrams will take even longer to arrive and they also use large amounts of fuel.
There’s also the question of how much worse the Russian retaliation against Ukraine may get for using outside help. There have previously been devastating missile strikes carried out on Ukrainian cities. But Nato countries appear to see Moscow’s warnings against escalation as bluffing. And Kyiv has the moral justification that it is defending its own territory against an invader.
The unmistakable trend in the West’s support for Ukraine is of strategic taboos being broken and caution easing with Ukrainian military successes last year.
Over the past 11 months, Ukraine’s allies have overcome their reluctance to supply mobile rocket systems, Patriot air defence batteries, and high-tech tanks. Now there are reports of talks being revived on whether to send F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv. Ukraine wants those and longer-range missiles.
F-16 fighter jets release flares during an exercise by Taiwanese defences, simulating an invasion by rival China. Photo / Alberto Buzzola, LightRocket via Getty Images, File
The fact the war hasn’t widened territorially beyond Ukraine owes something to discipline on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s part, amid the brutality. He doesn’t want Nato countries directly involved in the fighting - any more than they want to send combat troops.
Russia is stuck in a stalemate against one country. It can’t fight conventionally against several at once and is isolated politically and economically from major powers.
Tanks, which offer mobile firepower and armoured protection, are important for Ukraine to thwart any upcoming Russian offensive and to launch advances of its own.
A combination of advantageous supplies, infantry, artillery, training, strategic approaches, and resolve from the Ukrainians could be decisive, even though Russia has tens of thousands of unfortunate troops to throw into the war.
CNN reports that the US has been urging Ukraine to focus on the south rather than the east, making use of the new vehicles to retake territory and perhaps bring war-ending talks into sight. That outcome is certainly to be hoped for.
