Donald Trump at the White House in Washington in November 2020. Photo / Erin Schaff, The New York Times
Donald Trump at the White House in Washington in November 2020. Photo / Erin Schaff, The New York Times
EDITORIAL
As Donald Trump heads from Florida to New York today to appear before a judge, the former United States leader will be buoyed by one thing, while weighed down by a host of negatives.
Trump is expected to turn himself in to be arraigned tomorrow in what would bethe first time a United States president has faced criminal charges.
Every aspect will be heavily covered by the media and protests are likely, with the early front-runner for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination up on charges over hush money payments to women during his 2016 campaign.
Trump is expected to be booked, fingerprinted and photographed. It’s a humiliating moment for the former most powerful person in the world.
Yet a Yahoo News/YouGov opinion poll conducted after the indictment late last week contained a nugget of good news for him.
Illustration / Rod Emmerson
It showed Republicans rallying around Trump, giving him his biggest lead over main rival Governor Ron DeSantis, in a head-to-head contest, of 26 per cent.
These are early responses to Trump’s evolving situation while the details are unclear. Attitudes could change and more data is needed over time. There were also results that suggested potholes ahead.
The poll found that 52 per cent of Americans thought Trump should not be able to serve a second term if he is “convicted of a crime in this case”, while 17 per cent were unsure. A further 31 per cent thought he should be allowed.
On the indictment, 30 per cent of people who voted in 2020 for Trump either approved of it or were unsure. And 50 per cent of independents believe Trump has “committed a serious crime” at some stage.
From a political standpoint, Trump will try to use this appearance and a subsequent trial to get his Maga base to renew their vows to his cause. It could be enough to clinch his party’s nomination before any verdict. In an indication of his power with the grassroots, rival candidates have had to criticise the indictment.
There are unknowns ahead. Does the idea it is politically motivated become more common? Just how ugly will it all get?
Also, there are questions on how people view Trump’s legal cases when the debates and primaries get under way; whether a rival can make a case for a different path; which way the middle-ground independent voters lean on these issues; and how Trump’s troubles rate compared to other voter concerns.
The general election is very different to a primary. The past three major elections in the US showed Trumpism to be a drag on the Republican performance, including in tight swing states.
Republicans will still have a chance to switch to a different horse should Trump’s candidacy look like collapsing.
The Democrats’ hopes are in one basket - President Joe Biden - despite his tepid popularity and lukewarm job approval ratings. That could be a problem should a Republican with wider appeal come through.
What’s more, there’s a view that the Democrats might need Trump to spook voters to the polls. He’s been beatable previously and has an airport load of baggage. Just the prospect of the Trump circus pitching its tent at a Manhattan court brings a 2016 vibe.
For many people, though, it’s too risky giving him the chance of being president again.
