Getting tough on crime is always a good ploy as a general election looms. If the policy underpinning that crackdown is easily understood by those who hanker for a magic bullet, so much the better. The Act Party's plan to extend the three-strikes law for violent crime to burglary will, therefore, be welcomed by some. But it shares the shortcomings which should have ensured that legislation was never introduced.
Introducing the policy, Act's leader, Jamie Whyte, made much of the commonplace nature of burglary. More than 2000 families would have returned from the Easter break to find they had been burgled, he said. "With a 15 per cent apprehension rate and such absurdly soft sentencing, burglary is a low-risk, high-reward enterprise."
Act's plan would mean that burglars would spend at least three years in prison if convicted of the crime a third time. This, said Mr Whyte, would reduce burglary rates by deterring people from committing crime and by incapacitating burglars who were not deterred by holding them in prison.
Its effect could, he suggested, be judged by what had happened under the three-strikes law for violent crime, also Act policy. This requires judges to sentence offenders who commit a third violent crime to the maximum sentence without parole. About 4000 New Zealanders are on a first strike, 32 on a second strike, and no one has been convicted of a third-strike offence. But that gives no definitive judgment on the three-strikes approach. The policy was introduced only four years ago. Given the typical sentences for violent crime, its effect will not be known until 2020 or 2025.
What is known is that the burglary rate has been falling steadily over the past few years after the police made it a priority. A particular focus has been repeat offenders and location. The latest police statistics, for the year to last June, showed that nationally, burglaries were down 10.1 per cent on the previous 12 months. The Waitemata district had 23.7 per cent fewer burglaries, and Auckland City's fell by 22.8 per cent, a situation attributed to a Prevention First strategy and officers being issued with smartphones and tablets.