Editorial: A spectacle over the speaker suggests US gridlock for next two years

Representative Kevin McCarthy, a Republican of California, reacts after losing the 14th vote in the House chamber to elect a speaker and convene the 118th Congress in Washington. Photo / AP

The spectacle of the Republican Party struggling to elect a House Speaker, as the January 6, 2021 anniversary of the attack on Congress was marked, does not inspire much confidence in US politics.

America’s main opposition party is being eaten from within by a far-right populist faction, and now the new speaker, in the line of succession for the presidency, owes them his job.

A political assault on the chambers of power in Washington failed two years ago, but a fringe element continues to gain clout inside the House of Representatives.

About 20 Freedom Caucus hardliners used the thin Republican majority in the House, won in last November’s Midterm elections, to turn Kevin McCarthy’s bid to become the 55th speaker into an odyssey, extracting concessions along the way.

He failed 14 times in four days - the fifth longest losing streak for speaker votes in US history. The four above his effort all took place in the 19th century.

Just the process of not being able to gain enough votes to win until the 15th ballot fatally undermines McCarthy’s authority and shows there are enough mutineers in Congress to sink his ship at any time in the next two years.

Not only does it suggest an inability to govern, some of the concessions could entrench dysfunction. For instance, McCarthy agreed to bring back a policy where a single member can call for a vote on ousting the speaker. Far-right members, including election deniers, conspiracy theorists, and financial conservatives, also pushed for more committee representation. McCarthy thanked former president Donald Trump, who is running again, for his influence in securing the win.

Most likely this result means chaos and gridlock in the split Congress for the next two years. It will be harder to pass legislation, avoid a government spending shutdown, and support Ukraine down the track.

Far-right conservatives gaining more influence in the House will disappoint Republicans who want the party to move away from Trump.

It shows the party is not yet cohesive enough - with a clear divide between radical and establishment Republicans - to convince most US voters they can govern competently. Independent voters swung Democrat after Trump’s election, causing Republicans to underperform in the last three elections in 2018, 2020 and 2022.

Currently, compared with China and Russia, the US appears resilient and powerful, especially through strengthened international ties with Europe and key allies in Asia. Elsewhere, at least some authoritarians and conservative populists have either had setbacks or were swept out of office in the past year.

But political cycles change and outside countries know there could be another turnaround in two years with a possible return to a more chaotic, isolationist US administration.

Joe Biden’s term as president could even turn out to be a brief period of conventional rule, on an overall political slide into instability.

The course of the pandemic, the Ukraine war, and their economic fallouts; climate measures; and US relations with the rest of the world; could have been quite different had Trump been re-elected.

The most stable power bloc with the ability to set policy directions for the future is the European Union. European and Asian countries, Australia and New Zealand, can be a counter-balance against superpower instability in the future.