Editorial: A new hardline message on vaccinations - but will it get through?

A vaccine clinic at Manurewa Marae. Photo / Sylvie Whinray

New Zealand's new traffic light approach to Covid-19 resembles a motorway in the distance, with the on-ramp some way off.

Warning signs are being swiftly erected for unvaccinated drivers as the country heads towards its destination. But will they have the desired effect of boosting vaccinations now?

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's outline of what vaccinated people will be able to do and the rest won't, amounts to a future threat: Refuse to do what's needed and life won't be as good.

Normal activities such as getting a haircut or going into a bar will be off-limits to those who can't produce vaccination certificates.

The caveat is that the rules won't be triggered until full vaccination targets of 90 per cent are actually met in district health board areas.

That will take time, even if the announcement prompts a sudden rush of people wanting jabs.

Auckland as a whole has now passed the 90 per cent milestone for first doses, but the level is uneven across the region's three DHBs. Auckland city is at 93 per cent, Waitemata at 90 per cent and Counties Manukau at 87 per cent. The rates for second doses are 80 per cent, 75 per cent and 72 per cent respectively, with 75 per cent overall.

Most areas of the country are lagging behind.

Targeting communities directly, bringing vaccines to people and offering incentives have worked to get some hesitant people over the line. Extra peer pressure and fear of being left behind are being applied now. But are the unvaccinated taking much notice? Perhaps an information blitz is required.

People still thinking about whether or not to get a shot at this late stage haven't been swayed by having Delta loose in the community, massive attention on the vaccine rollout, all the restrictions in place, the country being in limbo, pleas to protect their own families, and appeals to consider the good of all.

Some people will just put it off until they actually experience negative consequences.

It could be argued that more pressure needs to be applied now rather than later - at least in areas of the country where people can get haircuts, visit gyms, and sit down in cafes at present. The certificates are not yet ready but people could be required to present proof of vaccine letters or cards or a negative test.

On the other hand, the writing on the wall could be the spur to get vaccinated that some need. The announcement of looming Covid-19 passports and mandates in France earlier this year caused a major uptick in people wanting shots there. Tests remained an alternative to showing a pass for months but are now no longer free.

Overall, New Zealand's dealings with Delta, our vaccination drive and reopening plans have become more like Australia's, with stated targets to aim at, a mix of carrot and stick strategy and a goal to work towards.

This is one of the background issues in play. The two countries are joined at the hip on different levels. New Zealand has to broadly stay in touch with Australia's moves or lose workers and other advantages to its neighbour.

After the high of 130,000 doses delivered on Super Saturday, last week's vaccine numbers were average. There were 44,750 vaccines given on Friday.

The daily Covid response numbers to watch this week will be the numbers of people getting first jabs. It should give an indication of whether the more hardline message has really got through.