Early ?dust-up? likely test decider

A return to the good old days is on the cards when the All Blacks and Lions lock horns in the first rugby test in Christchurch on Saturday.
You don't need to be reaching geriatric age to recall the times when you could wager with some certainty that a dust-up between the forwards would occur within the first 15 minutes or so.
It was all about "sorting things out" in the crucial ball-winning areas of scrum and lineout and, more than not, once the dust had settled the players would go about their business without any further instances of that kind.
Risky as it is when you consider the presence of television cameras, bolshy match officials and an opposition fist-five who can land penalty goals from all over the paddock it is my contention that if the All Blacks are to beat the Lions by a comfortable margin they will need to take the law into their own hands.
Standing back and allowing the Lions to continue with their obvious flouting of the rules when it comes to slowing down possession on opposition ball at the breakdowns would greatly enhance the chances of the tourists pulling off an unlikely victory.
Simply because it would nullify to some degree the All Blacks' greatest strength, the pace and penetration of their outside backs.
For that to be fully exploited quick ball from second and third-or even fourth and fifth- phase situations is an absolute must, and so the All Blacks might have to be prepared to concede at least three points early on so as to ensure that the referee himself is right on the ball in that area of the game.
That the Lions will be conservative in their tactical approach is a given.
They will be heavily reliant on their big forwards calling the tune in the set pieces as well as the rucks and mauls and spreading the ball wide through their backs on a consistent basis will be the last thing on their minds.
Rather they will have their inside backs, especially Jonny Wilkinson, constantly kicking for territory with the idea of playing most of the game deep in the opposition half.
And when, as is sure to happen from time to time, the All Blacks infringe they will expect Wilkinson to bang over enough penalties to keep their noses in front on the scoreboard.
It will be boring, boring stuff but if it achieves the right result who cares. After all this is a test and just how you win doesn't count in the history books, does it?
The tactical approach of the All Blacks is more difficult to predict with any certainty.
If this was the second or third test you could be pretty certain they would look to play an expansive style of rugby with the aim of running the Lions off their feet.
A first test is generally a different ball game though.
The importance of gaining a 1-0 lead in the overall series tends to have the effect of teams keeping their cards a little closer to their chests, and I can't imagine the All Blacks being any different this weekend.
That doesn't mean, of course, they will completely ignore the attacking talents of their three-quarter line but the chances are they too will place the emphasis on territorial dominance for all of the first half, and probably the first 10 minutes of the second as well.
So that being the case it will be the last 30 minutes which will decide whether the All Blacks deserve to be the red-hot favourites which every man and his dog are making them.
It will be then that they will spread their wings (figureatively and literally) and from what we seen over the last few weeks it's hard to believe the Lions will see which way they go.
The two p's, pedestrian and ponderous, aptly describe their back play on tour thus far and unless Sir Clive has been deliberately holding them in check-and I don't for a minute think he has- their deficiencies could be cruelly exposed.
Enough, I suspect, for the All Blacks to win by a double-figure margin.